The Nub

The Nub

"If you don't think life imitates sports, you're not reading The Nub”
                                                                                                             -  Bill Moyers

“Politics and baseball.  Interesting blog…called ‘The Nub’ on”
                                                                                                               - Boston Globe

The Credibility Challenge on Both Fields

With roughly only 40 regular-season games left, it’s time to tick off playoff –possible teams. Except in the all-or-nothing NL East, five or fewer games behind in the wild card standings make our cut. By that measurement, a numerically impressive 16 teams are still in the hunt – nine in the AL, seven in the NL. The list (including division leaders): Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays, Royals, Tigers, Astros, Angels, Rangers; Mets, Nationals, Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants.

We give three teams on the list only outside chances of making the post-season: the Rays, Tigers and Mets. Why the first-place Mets? Because the healing-from-key-injuries Nationals can be expected to come on strong. And we know the Mets have been meltdown-prone in the homestretch ever since they were an inning away from the World Series in 2006. The Marlins hammered Tom Glavine in the final game of 2007, nudging them a game out of a first-place tie. They faded to three games out in 2008, owing to a depleted bullpen. In ensuring years they faded completely. Hard to believe some similar historic failings – hitting and/or bullpen – won’t undermine them this time around.

Would-be presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has a Metsian-like credibility challenge as he deals with the Dem team in his party’s nomination playoff. Vox scout Ezra Klein summed up Bernie’s problem in this single sentence: “Can Sanders convince Democrats he can win?”

The fact that Bernie will turn 74 early next month complicates his persuasion task. People in the national ballpark have never elected a Skipper as old as Sanders would be on taking office in 2017. The Dem team favorite – comparatively youthful Hillary Clinton (68 in January ’07) – has money as well as wide front office support working in her favor. What she doesn’t have is the elusive gift of “authenticity,” which WashPost’s E.J. Dionne says could be decisive. Here is how he puts it (without mentioning Hillary by name): More voters than usual seem tired of carefully focus-grouped public statements, deftly cultivated public personas, and cautiously crafted political platforms that are designed to move just the right number of voters in precisely the right places to cast a half-hearted vote for a person or a party.”

A reason, perhaps, why mostly spontaneous Donald Trump has been successful as a Team GOP candidate so far.

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Lengthening Odds: It’s risky ever to rule out the Giants from overcoming competitive obstacles. But, after last night’s loss to the Pirates and the Cubs’ victory over the Braves, SF is eight games behind the Bucs and four behind Joe Maddon’s team in the wild card race. That leaves them one-on-one with the Dodgers for the playoff spot that goes with the NL West pennant. And the Giants must overtake an LAD team just strengthened by the addition of Chase Utley, while they must counter with newly obtained Marlon Byrd as the lone reinforcement for the absences of injured Hunter Pence and Angel Pagan. All that, and we’re not in an SF-blessed even year.

Lucky to be a Yankee (Fan): Brian Cashman deserves a GM-of-the-Year Award for (1) acquiring pitcher Nathan Eovaldi (13-2) from the Marlins in a pre-season deal; (2) holding on to pitcher Luis Severino and first baseman Greg Bird rather than possibly dealing them away before the July 31 deadline. With the addition of Severino, the Yanks have a solid rotation to go with a superior relief corps and a potent offense. If they don’t hold off the talent-top-heavy Blue Jays for the AL East title, the Yankees should win enough to give their fans post-season play as a wild card team..

More on the Mets: Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan suggests where the blame should rest if the Mets pull another fade, despite the much celebrated rental of Yoenis Cespedes: “(Cespedes) is not the sort to liberate New York from the sins of the Wilpons, the Mets’ owners who are being lauded for upgrading their team at the deadline. Here’s the truth: A New York team starting the season with a payroll below that of the Milwaukee Brewers, Kansas City Royals and Cincinnati Reds, among many, many others, is the sort of unforgiveable failing that makes this look promising only because where they started is such an embarrassment.”


(More of The Nub, a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey, can be found at

The Hype: Its Effect on Savvy Fans and Voters

Whaddaya know Joe? It’s mid-August, and New York’s two teams are leading their divisions. The talent-rich Blue Jays and Nationals in close pursuit notwithstanding, the hype is inevitable: “With some luck,” said the Wall Street Journal this week, “the entire World Series could be played in New York.” Savvy fans know better: both teams have sizable holes – the Yankees in starting pitching, the Mets with a persistent paucity of hitting.   The bubble could burst this weekend when the Yanks play three in Toronto, and Mets host the playoff-bound Pirates.

“It’s too fragile,” Cardinals manager Mike Matheny likes to say when scribes extoll the consistent play of what SI’s Tom Verducci calls the skipper’s “superteam.” Fractious” might be a more apt word to describe Team GOP’s would-be presidential lineup as the primary playoff gets rolling. The team has no solid favorite in position to challenge bumptious Donald Trump. Indeed, among the 21 active primary candidates, 17 Republican and four Democrat, there is only one generally acknowledged front-runner. Hillary Clinton has a Cardinal-like superteam plus name recognition and money to enable her to go all the way. But Hillary would do well to note what Matheny said of his heavily-favored Redbirds: there is too much fragility in what lies ahead to consider one’s success a sure thing.

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More on the Cardinals: A key to the Cards’ dominance this season can be found in runs-allowed stat. St..Louis has yielded only 322 runs in 112 games; that’s 84 fewer than the wild card-bound Pirates. The Rockies, at the bottom of the list, have, by comparison, given up 575 runs. SI’s Joe Lemire points out that the Redbirds’ pitching and defense are particularly tough when the opposition has men on base. With runners in scoring position, it’s virtually forget-about-it, says Lemire.

Adjustment: Jose Reyes, on what it’s been like being traded from the playoff-likely Blue Jays to the doormat Rockies: “It’s been tough. I want to win. My best time was in the playoffs with the Mets (2006). But I’m still playing baseball.”

Streakers: Toronto + 9, Kansas City + 5, Cubs + 5


(The Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey.  Previous Nubs may be found by scrolling below.)




The Buying Game Playing Out on Both Fields

On MLB-TV the other night, Peter Gammons asked former Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd a rare, provocative question about Baseball’s uneven playing field: “Aren’t teams justifiably concerned,” he said, “at the way the Dodgers are using their endless supply of money?” Gammons was referring to the LAD strategy of refusing to yield prime prospects for the likes of Cole Hamels or David Price. Instead , they spend whatever it takes to obtain solid non-stars like Mat Latos and Alex Wood by relieving trade partners of disposable pricey contracts. The multi-million dollar buyouts plus luxury taxes are acceptable costs of doing business the new Dodger way.

O’Dowd replied like a true organization-man: “The Dodgers are playing within the rules,” he said. Any need to rectify the economic imbalance was left unexpressed. Coincidentally, at a Charles Koch- audition for possible GOP presidential candidates, Jeb Bush was defending the $120 million war chest he’s already raised before announcing his candidacy. “Money helps,” he said. “I’m playing by the rules of the game, the way it’s laid out.” And, we know what the rules laid out by the “Citizens United” decision means: that Koch and other Dodger-like moguls with deep pockets can try, and possibly succeed, in buying elections, including that of the next national Skipper. Fan apathy could abet the effort. Rally caps in abundance are needed to produce a stopper.

Ezra Klein (Vox) on Donald Trump’s Game: “He doesn’t back down…an appealing kind of lunacy.”

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Tribal Score? Who made the best trade-for-a-prospect deal prior to the July 31 deadline. The verdict of one highly regarded minor-league tracker interviewed on MLB-TV: the Indians pulled off a coup in obtaining lefty Rob Kaminsky from the Cardinals for Brandon Moss. Kaminsky, a first-rounder drafted out of high school in 2013, is now described by as a premium prospect who had “the best curve ball in the (Cardinals) system.” “They gave up too much,” said another birddog.

Stat City – pitching leaders: Zach Greinke, LAD, W-L pct. 1.71 (11-2); Chris Sale, CWS, strikeouts, 186 in 143 innings; Tyson Ross, Padres, fewest walks, 4 in 113 innings.

Bad Look: “There was a scene Tuesday night in the eighth inning, when (Hanley) Ramirez came in on a ball and Pablo Sandoval went out and eventually made the catch, resulting in the two laughing on the field.   It was a bad look, and YES analyst Paul O’Neill made note of it on the Yankees broadcast. Laughing on the field during a 13-3 loss doesn’t put you in the best light.” – Nick Cafardo, Boston Globe


(The Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey. Comments about blog issues are welcome. Previous Nubs may be found by scrolling below.)


Baseball Fans and the ‘Collapsing Middle Class’

The political league’s hard lefty hitter Bernie Sanders complained the other day about lack of fan concern as to “why the middle class is collapsing.” If we would talk about that “half of the time…as opposed to…baseball,” he said, “we would revolutionize what’s going on in America.”

Bernie doesn’t realize there’s little talk about Baseball in Milwaukee, Oakland, Cleveland, Seattle, San Diego, or even Boston. This is the high point, less for fans in general, than for the media people. It’s the midsummer separation period when beat writers revel in tracking pre-deadline deals of playoff contenders: wealthy teams solidifying their competitive standing, the budget-conscious clubs making do with rosters that got them this far.

It’s the time when Baseball abandons the idea of an even playing field, exchanging it for the excitement well-healed teams, as well as the press people, love. We’ve long shouted how much we dislike this upsetting of the comparatively fair fight that unfolded in both leagues since early April. Sanders advanced the fairness idea that he says should be playing out in part of the Middle East, In so doing, he has to hitt against a bi-partisan shift:

“(Am I) a Zionist?…Do I think Israel has a right to exist, yeah, I do. Do I believe that the United States should be playing an even-handed role in terms of its dealings with the Palestinian community in Israel? Absolutely I do…I think that you have volatile regions in the world… and the United States has got to work with other countries around the world to fight for Israel’s security and existence at the same time as we fight for a Palestinian state where the people in that country can enjoy a decent standard of living, which is certainly not the case right now. My long-term hope is that instead of pouring so much military aid into Israel, into Egypt, we can provide more economic aid to help improve the standard of living of the people in that area.” (From interview with Ezra Klein on Vox)

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Key Pre-7/31 Deals: Dustin Ackley (Mariners to Yankees); Bronson Arroyo (Braves to Dodgers); Jonathon Broxton (Brewers to Cardinals); Yoenis Cespedes (Tigers to Mets); Steve Cishek (Marlins to Cardinals); Tyler Clippard (Athletics to Mets); Ryan Cook (Athletics to Red Sox); Johnny Cueto (Reds to Royals); Mike Fiers (Brewers to Astros); Conor Gillaspie (White Sox to Angels); Carlos Gomez (Brewers to Astros); Cole Hamels (Phillies to Rangers); J.A. Happ (Mariners to Pirates); Dan Haren (Marlins to Cubs); Tommy Hunter (Orioles to Cubs); Kevin Jepsen (Rays to Twins); Kelly Johnson (Braves to Mets) Mat Latos (Marlins to Dodgers); Mike Leake (Reds to Giants); (Indians to Angels); Brandon Moss (Indians to Cardinals); David Murphy (Indians to Angels); Gerardo Parra (Brewers to Orioles); Jonathon Papelbon (Phillies to Nationals; David Price (Tigers to Blue Jays); Ben Revere (Phillies to Blue Jays); Jose Reyes (Blue Jays to Rockies); Josh Rutledge (Angels to Red Sox); Joakim Soria (Tigers to Pirates); Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies to Blue Jays); Juan Uribe (Braves to Mets)Shane Victorino (Red Sox to Angels); Alex Wood (Braves to Dodgers); Ben Zobrist (Athletics to Royals)

Noticable: The outpouring of negative media comments about Jose Reyes’ diminished value – after his trade from Toronto to Colorado. One explanation: his asking out of the last game of the 2011 season – his last as a Met – after getting a hit in the first inning. He did it to protect his batting title lead, and turned off home-team fans as well as many around the country.

Consensus: Despite the Blue Jays’ addition of Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, , the offense-blessed team doesn’t have deep enough pitching to ensure making the AL playoffs: that’s how an MLB-TV panel, including former Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd and ex-players Dan Plesac and Brian Roberts, see it. Roberts’ old team the Orioles are their choice for a wild-card spot, at least.


(The Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey. Comments about blog issues are welcome. Previous Nubs may be found by scrolling below.)


The Things We Accept – in BAaseball and Politics

Some things pass us by, and become a “given” without challenge. That happens in Baseball, often with regard to ticket prices, about which, lately, we seldom hear complaints. For awhile, the NYC press gave the Yanks and Mets a hard time about their new stadiums, including the elevated cost of seats. We’ve remarked that the bench jockeying hurled at the sport from the media has fallen silent over the past few years. That’s not the case anymore, thanks to NY Post sports/broadcast columnist Phil Mushnick.

Earlier this week, Mushnick told of a father who had bought 16 tickets to a 1:10p “family Sunday” Mets-Nats game at CitiField. The outing was scheduled a week from tomorrow, August 2. But last week, the Mets notified the man the start had been reset for 8:10 p.m. Why? A request from ESPN, which owned the rights to change the schedule.  “By now,” notes Mushnick, “this MLB Sunday bait-and-switch as per ESPN’s money orders has become a repetitive story… Buying a ticket to anything has become an exercise in self-imperilment; standard, minimal good faith has been replaced by Commissioner-certified, grab-with-both-hands greed.”

Mushnick describes the prevalent media indifference to such practices as an “Is what it is” attitude. When profits provide the rationale, who among us takes voluble exception? We understand business expenses must be met, salaries paid. We’ve learned to respect the power of money. Many of us can date that respect to 2008, when it was shown to Wall Street, home base of the sub-prime mortgage scandal. The big-bank bailout team: the very one expected to protect Main Street and not the banks, Team USA, run by Skippers Bush, and then Obama.

The mystifying deference paid huge-salaried bank execs, including those implicated in the scandal – none of whom faced prosecution – reinforced the feeling of a new order around the national ballpark: the idea that nothing can stop money. Fast-food workers, students struggling to pay college loans, laid-off employees, know the feeling acutely. But all of Main Street has taken a hit. Reason for hope (however faint): progressive presidential candidates urging fans to roll back the current game plan are touching a responsive nerve. While waiting for a nationwide rally to unfold, Main Street needs a sandlot baseball-like “misery rule.”

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Back Bay Finger-Pointing:  Given the struggles of (Red Sox GM Ben) Cherington, it’s worth recalling the remarks of his former boss, Theo Epstein, on the day that he became president of baseball operations with the Cubs – at the same time that Cherington was being introduced with the Sox. ‘There are no definitive answers in this game, no shortcuts,’ Epstein said in October 2011. ’When you think you’ve got it all figured out, you can get humbled very quickly.’

“The Sox are being humbled. The question is whether the lesson in humility is coming with the framework for sustainable future success…That, even more than the results of the here-and-now, is how Cherington’s bosses must evaluate him. If he’s bringing the team closer to its long-term aspiration of ‘the next great Red Sox team,’ then, despite the miserable performances of recent years, he’s the right man for the job. If not, then the Sox’ focus should be on their front office rather than their roster. “ – Alex Speier, Boston Globe

Concede-Lane Lagging: Let’s say, conservatively, that, close to two months from the end of the regular season, teams double-digit games behind in the wild card races can, in all fairness be counted out. That’s still the reality for only four of the 30 MLB teams, all in the NL: Philadelphia, Miami and Colorado. The Brewers and Reds are flirting with that bad-news catergory, as are the Red Sox and A’s in the AL. Still among long-shot good- news teams, we find the Rangers, Indians, Braves, D-backs, Padres, White Sox and Mariners. So, by this generous count, roughly 80 percent of the teams are still in the mix. The Brewers and A’s have already made pre-deadline trades of Aramis Ramirez to the Pirates and Scott Kazmir to the Astros. And the Angels acquired Conor Gillaspie from the White Sox. We can expect other lower-rung teams – like the Braves dealing Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson to the Mets – to follow suit in the next few days. But we shouldn’t be surprised if there are a good number of pre-deadline holdouts.

Streaker: Astros + 5


(The Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey. Comments about blog issues are welcome. Previous Nubs may be found by scrolling below.)


The Power Game: It Works, But Not Forever

ParityMath: Attentive fans know that, of the 10 playoff-bound teams, at least one will make the cut because of deals arranged before the non-waiver trade deadline. Superior resources – mainly money along with a productive farm system – will nudge another well-led and assembled team out of the post-season. We don’t know yet who will likely edge their way in and who will be bumped. We do think it unfair, however, exposing a major flaw in MLB’s touted “parity.”

We can’t blame the mega-rich Dodgers for meddling with the playoffs lineup: their success as one of the golden 10 has been a given. They are now reportedly on the brink of adding Johnny Cueto or Cole Hamels to their rotation with the aim of going for the World Series title. We can – and do – blame the media for celebrating the churn that occurs each July, giving them the buildup to deals for daily material. The parity-achievement story line will be conveniently forgotten as the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Tigers, Cubs, et al, add star power to their rosters while poorer-relation teams like the Rays and A’s must compete with players who have carried them this far.

There’s no question that the $270 million-payroll Dodgers are the new Yankees, the team (along for the moment with the Cardinals) that has unstoppable regular-season pitching and hitting power. The Bomber dynasty lasted through much of the last century and was still visible in 2009. True parity-lovers can, therefore, console themselves that nothing indeed lasts forever: LA will, Yankee-like, revert in a decade or so, to a more modest role – as home base for Dodger Blues.

Yankee fans are enjoying the team’s surge to its current four-game division lead. Though the Yanks are no longer dominant in the American League, their followers are grateful to see them competitive again. That’s not the way some spectators in the national ballpark feel about Team USA, which is playing these days on a more even global field. The boos have been particularly loud since Skipper Obama’s coaches worked out a deal curbing Iran’s offensive arsenal. Peter Beinart, scouting for The Atlantic, links the partisan noise to lack of awareness of the power shifts occurring, Baseball-like, in the world political league:

“When critics focus incessantly on the gap between the present deal (with Tehran) and a perfect one, what they’re really doing is blaming Obama for the fact that the United States is not omnipotent. This isn’t surprising given that American omnipotence is the guiding assumption behind contemporary Republican foreign policy. Ask any GOP presidential candidate except Rand Paul what they propose doing about any global hotspot and their answer is the same: be tougher. America must take a harder line against Iran’s nuclear program, against ISIS, against Bashar al-Assad, against Russian intervention in Ukraine and against Chinese ambitions in the South China Sea.”

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Lock and Key: Despite their shaky rotation, the Yankees are blessed for the moment with a winning asset few other teams possess: health. Two keys to their recent success bat one and two, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Garner, both hitting in the .300s and stealing bases at a double-digit rate. Complementing that strength on the pitching side: lockup artists: setup man Dellin Betances and closer Andrew Miller.

Death and the Deadline: After studying the Tigers and Mariners in successive series at Yankee Stadium, we came away with identical impressions: Both teams looked dead. The Mariners, now nine games under .500, should soon be pre-deadline sellers. The Tigers, nine-and-a-half out of first in the AL Central but playing at a .500 pace, are unlikely to give in. In deference to their veteran owner, 86-year-old Mike Ilitch, we expect them to yield to the temptation to make a desperate buy.

Streakers: Angels +5, Padres +5, Red Sox – 5


(The Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey. Comments about blog issues are welcome. Previous Nubs may be found by scrolling below.)

Sizing Up Some All-Stars and a Would-Be Skipper

“He has LA swag,” Cincy’s Todd Frazier said of Dodger rookie Joc Pederson before they competed as finalists in Monday night’s Home Run Derby. Via TV, we were sizing up the 23-year-old Pederson for the first time. A no-frills young man, he seemed quietly self-assured, not at all overwhelmed by the big stage and the challenge of taking on the home-field favorite. There was no swagger, nothing to alienate an objective observer. When Pederson beamed as Albert Pujols hugged Joc’s older brother who had accompanied him to Cincinnati, he surely made many fans, us included. Champ Pederson, who has Down Syndrome, was clearly devoted to his kid brother, and vice-versa.

It’s been 13 years since the mid-season break centerpiece, the All-Star Game, became a game that counted – the winner earning home-field advantage for whichever World Series team represents its league. While many in the media still prefer the exhibition-game format, most fans love it that the game matters. How could they not? Answer: the naysayers are indifferent enough to go along with the media consensus.

The attitude plays out on the political field as well. The media’s role in preferring an exhibition to a true contest is particularly egregious in the Dem team presidential playoff event. The NY Times, among other major outlets, has played a glaringly one-sided game in its support of centrist Hillary Clinton; so much so that the paper felt constrained to pitch a near-apology to Clinton opponent Bernie Sanders the other day. A reporter for The Upshot series, Nat Cohn, interviewed the Vermont senator, admitting in so many words it was payback: “I had written an article concluding he had slim chances of winning the nomination.”

Sanders, a longtime lefty, used his time at the plate to suggest that Cohn had made the equivalent of an official scorer’s mistake. “I’m not a liberal, never have been” he said on his first swing. “I look at things from a class perspective.” In Cohn’s words, Sanders “believes he can mobilize a working-class coalition spanning (left-right) divides.” Sanders draws hope from the success he’s had in Vermont. Working-class voters there, many of whom disagree with his stance on such issues as gay marriage, have supported him through the years as he rose from a local elected to member of Congress, and then to the Senate. Sanders is booed by some on the left because, in deference to what he calls “law-abiding” Vermont families, he opposes strict gun control measures. That he will be 74 in September is also a negative; many would-be fans consider him vulnerable to stage-of-life health setbacks.

In contrast to most vote-seeking players, Sanders has no illusions about the persuasiveness of his call for a massive citizen effort to upend the unfair state of the economy. “Everything I’m telling you may end up being wrong,” he said to Cohn. “(But) at the end of the day…you will see, maybe, you are wrong.”

Dem All-Stars Scouting Report: Capsule takeaways from debut derby of five presidential candidates at Cedar Rapids, Iowa, last night. They spoke in alphabetical order. Lincoln Chafee – Introduced himself as former GOP Senator who clashed with his party’s radicals before becoming a Democrat. Hillary Clinton: Told how struggling mother inspired her to become political activist. Martin O’Malley: Said he would make renewal of Glass-Steagall a high presidential priority. Bernie Sanders: Sole participant to refer to plight of African-Americans. Jim Webb: Pitched surprisingly for a revitalized union movement, and indirectly targeted Hillary by alluding to debacles of Iraq and Libya.                                                      

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Baseball/Patriotism/Militarism: As part of what a military Air Force officer called “one of (America’s) most patriotic events,” the All Star game was preceded by a Thunderbird fighter fly-over. Shots of the formatiom elicited “wows” from Fox’s broadcasting team. Kate Smith’s rendition of “God Bless America,” we know, has become a patriotic seventh-inning staple at MLB ballparks. Coincidentally, All-Star day this year fell on the anniversary of the birth of Woody Guthrie, who composed what he felt was a needed antidote to “God Bless America.”

More on the Antidote: This, from The Writer’s Almanac published the day of the sport’s patriotic event: “(Guthrie) wrote his most famous song, ‘This Land is Your Land,’ in New York City while living in a building for transients…He was tired of hearing Kate Smith sing Irving Berlin’s ‘God Bless America’ on the radio. He’d seen enough during his travels to know that for many Americans, there was nothing blessed about their lives.”

I Like Jersey Best: Two New Jersey boys, Mike Trout (Millville) and Todd Frazier (Toms River) shared a private jet to their home state after the All Star festivities. They like where they work – Anaheim and Cincinnati – but clearly have great affection for where the come from.


(The Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey. Comments about blog issues are welcome. Previous Nubs may be found by scrolling below.)


Southern Comfort for Discomforted Red Sox

The good news-starved Red Sox can be cheered by an encouraging report from their Class A team in the South Atlantic league. Their $38 million bonus baby Youan Moncada has started to live up to the potential he displayed in his native Cuba. A month after the then-19-year-old’s mid-May arrival with the Greenville Drive in South Carolina, these were two of his stats: BA .200, 18 errors in 20 games. Since then, during the league’s second half, Moncada is hitting just under .400, with six extra-base hits and 11 steals in as many attempts; all that in just 14 games.

Moncada’s manager Darren Fenster calls Moncada’s speed “game-changing” and his improving defensive skills “significant.” A report from the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier noted “glimpses of immense promise and the possibility of what may be coming.” Moncada’s surge has helped put Greenville in first place in combined halves of the league’s 14-team setup. The Yankees’ Class A team, the Charleston RiverDogs is mired one place from the bottom in its half of the league. It does have an admired relief pitching prospect in Caleb Frare, a lefthanded 11th-round draftee picked from a Montana high school.

In keeping with Baseball’s politics-averse stance, the RiverDogs ownership declined to call off a game the night in mid-June after the fatal shooting at the city’s historic black church. Charleston itself was widely acclaimed for pressing successfully through its lawmakers to have the Confederate flag removed from the grounds of the SC statehouse in Columbia. The success of Charleston’s anti-racism response to the shooting raised a companion question in the aftermath of the tragedy: why was racism alone targeted and not also the dangerous, virtually unregulated ownership of guns?

A day after the fatal shooting of nine persons inside the church, President Obama publicly expressed regret that “politics” in Washington “foreclose(d)” any mass effort at gun control. Confirming the barrier the country faces in curbing gun violence, The Economist magazine published a photo showing the response of South Carolina’s two Republican leaders after a call for gun control in the state legislature. Here is an accompanying caption: ” It shows the standing ovation that followed (the) call… during which Governor Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott remained seated, hands in their laps: For them it was easier to suffer a moment’s embarrassment than face accusations from local Republicans that they are ‘gun grabbers’, unwilling to defend what conservatives believe is a near-absolute right to bear arms in the Second Amendment to the Constitution.”

As for the somewhat surprising solidarity of Charleston residents in opposition to official display of the Confederate flag, the BBC, among other media outlets, gave this explanation: “Business wants the flag issue to go away; it’s bad for tourism.” And, we can add, not good for the sale of firearms.

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Half-Season Overview: If, in deference to the Padres (10 games out), Rockies, Marlins, Indians and White Sox (11), we set 12 games behind as the long-shot limit a team can hope to make the playoffs. Here is what we see in mid-July: all teams in four of the six divisions remain in contention. Obvious favorites to finish first: Nationals and Royals. Serious surgers to the top: Angels, who have displaced the surprising Astros in the AL West.  The half-season shocker: the Tigers nine games behind the in the AL Central.

What are we to make of the Tigers? They’re first among the 30 teams in hitting, and tied with the Rockies for first in (RISP) hitting with runners in scoring position. Detroit is also a respectable ninth in fielding. But, here’s the key: the Tigers are 27th in pitching. And, obviously, the absence for the next month of the injured Miguel Cabrera isn’t going to help.

Sure, It’s Premature, But…Here are the playoff –qualifying teams as of the All-Star break: AL – Yankees, Royals, Angels, and Astros and Twins. NL – Nationals, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Pirates and Cubs. The guess here is that at least eight of the 10 will make the post-season.

Streakers: Astros – 6, Braves – 5, Phillies – 5


(The Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey. Comments about blog issues are welcome. Previous Nubs may be found by scrolling below.)


The Celebration Game and Errors of Inattention

Why were the Brewers and the Rockies, last in their divisions, so inactive during the off-season? Many fans suspect it was an overly cautious (for financial reasons) approach that numbed them to the urgency of their roster needs. At the other extreme were the overly active Oakland A’s – a.k.a., Billy Beane – who decided a drastic hot-stove shakeup would work wonders, no matter which premium players he sent away (like All-Star Josh Donaldson). The result so far: another last-place division team. We won’t talk about the .500-level Mets, about whom we’ve already said a lot, with fingers pointed at cash-strapped ownership.

These baseball deficiencies jibe in a way with historical errors connected to last weekend’s Independence Day celebration. Swarthmore Prof Dominic Tierney notes in his new book on Team USA’s post-1945 inability to win wars, that, “in terms of victory in a major war, the United States is one for five. The Gulf War in 1991 is the only success story. The dark age is a time of protracted fighting, featuring the three longest wars in American history (Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam).”  

As to why our wartime BA has fallen to a paltry.200, Tierney answers: “From 1846 to 1945, the United States had a minuscule peacetime army but won almost every major campaign. After World War II, Washington constructed the most expensive military machine that ever existed and endured seven decades of martial frustration… America’s newfound strength created a constant temptation to use force, and projected U.S. forces into distant conflicts. But (post-‘45 was) an unfortunate moment…The nature of global warfare changed in ways that made military campaigns ugly at best and unwinnable at worst.”

There’s been comparable evidence in the changing nature of Baseball – with more than a few teams slow to incorporate analytics into their approach to the game. On the other field, fans could only sigh as Team USA responded sluggishly to changes needed to compete successfully in the game it was playing. “Inattentiveness” is another way of describing a slow popular response. It’s a word that has characterized both the military now and the American people through too much of their history. In a Fourth of July talk he gave last week, Fordham Prof Richard Viladesau paraphrased the “frightening prophesy” of Benjamin Franklin at the time our Constitution was completed: “It will work for a short time, but eventually people will accept despotism. Democracy is hard work, and people can become lazy.” There was a similar sentiment abroad expressed by the great Russian novelist Fyodor Dostoyevsky. In “The Brothers Karamazov,” he has an oracular character say (again, as paraphrased byViladesau) : “People don’t want to be free. They want an easy life, with someone to give answers. Freedom takes courage and energy.”

Viladisau expresses the hope that fans will prove the prophesies wrong. An eventual possibility requiring a miraculous come-from-behind rally for it to happen.

“Bemused Contempt”: Phrase used in letter to NY Times, objecting to the Gray Lady’s dismissive treatment of Bernie Sanders in the presidential primary contest it has all but conceded to Hillary Clinton.

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Rejuvenation: At season’s end, AL East fans may remember last Wednesday, July 8, as the day the Yankees took charge of that previously leaderless division. Why? It was the day “two All-Stars” (Michael Kay’s comment on YES) rejoined the team after substantive stints on the DL. The players in question: center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury and closer Andrew Miller. Before injuring his left knee May 19, Ellsbury was batting .324, with 14 stolen bases. Miller, who strained his left forearm June 11, is 17-for-17 in save opportunities. P.S. After last night’s win in Boston, the Yanks are three-for-three since the elite reinforcements arrived.

Cloud Over Houston: John Smoltz (on MLB-TV), on why the Astros may not be able to maintain their winning pace through the summer: “Their young pitchers, unprepared for a full major league season, could well wear down.” As of last night, the Astros, with four straight losses while the Angels won their eighth in 10 games, had their AL West lead cut to a half-game.

Fact-Facing in San Diego: The Padres, with high hopes at the start of the season, must now face reality early in the second half. Ten games under .500, the team – trailing the D-backs as well as the Giants and Dodgers – is just about where it was a year ago. GM A.J. Preller, supported by the front office, hopes to both sell and buy before the end-of-month deadline. The aim: to come up with a mix that propels the Padres back into relevance, meaning the playoff picture. The math for such a rally is dispiriting: stat-people say the team will have to play at a .650 pace to make the post-season.

Streakers: Kansas City +6, San Diego – 6


(The Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey. Comments about blog issues are welcome. Previous Nubs may be found by scrolling below.)


The Shielding-Names Game in the Off-Field Media

“Haven’t we seen this collapse around the All-Star game before?” a Mets fan e-mailed the other day. His memory is right on. For the last few years, the Mets have been building up hope in the spring, only to fade as summer takes hold. The team’s light-hitting and shallow bench wear down in the warm weather. “Meaningful games” in late July are a pipe-dream. On the day of the message, MLB Now devoted a segment to the tailspinning Mets; former pitcher and team broadcaster Bobby Ojeda was a guest panel member. We were struck by how carefully fingers were pointed at injuries and ill-timed strategic moves, but not at individuals. We know MLB-TV’s role is to promote Baseball. We didn’t appreciate its additional tendency to serve as protective lobby for owners Fred and Jeff Wilpon and, to a lesser extent, GM Sandy Alderson. Fans know ownership’s unwillingness to spend to upgrade the roster is the big-market team’s basic problem. A policy of “leave the owners alone” destroys media credibility.

Similarly, the New York Times and much of the mainstream media hurts their reputation for objectivity by avoiding mention of those behind the last-minute victory of the Trans-Pacfic trade deal, which, in the words of Elizabeth Warren, makes it nearly impossible to enforce rules that protect hard-working families, but very easy to enforce rules that favor multinational corporations.” The Center for Responsive Politics lists more than 300 pro-business lobbying groups, including familiar names like Coca Cola, JP Morgan Chase, Wal-Mart, etc, that have gone to bat for anything but what Skipper Obama calls a “level playing field.”

And how about the seldom-mentioned names of the 13 Senate Democrats who voted with the pro-business side: Michael Bennet (CO), Maria Cantwell (WA), Tom Carper (DE), Chris Coons (DE), Dianne Feinstein (CA), Heidi Heitkamp (ND), Bill Nelson (FL),Tim Kaine (VA), Claire McCaskill (MO) Patty Murray, (WA), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Mark Warner (VA), Ron Wyden (OR) If it is true – and it is – that “names make news,”, those 13 should be identified; they may be in for trouble with attentive constituents.

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Fallback Plan: We expected to hear less talk in Mets-land about the need to conserve the innings of starters so there’ll be rested for the playoffs. But no, addition of another superfluous young arm – this belonging to Steven Matz – indicates Sandy Alderson, et al, are going to continue to play the six-man so-what? game. As if there’s a remote chance the team can return to playoff-competitive status. “Remote” as in “won’t happen.”

The Yankees’ Shaky Would-be Aces: Along with Mashiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda, the team now have a third less-than-predictable ace in Ivan Nova. If nothing else, the trio’s marginal reliability could permit Adam Warren to take over the seventh-inning relief slot. Many, including John Flaherty on YES, believe, overall, that would be an upgrade.

Rookie Worth Watching: “Maikel Franco (.303/10/29) is already the Phillies best hitter, and, depending on the uniform Cole Hamels wears in another month, he might soon be the team’s best player. He trails Joc Pederson (.249/19/47) and Kris Bryant (277/10/43) for Rookie of the Year, but he is younger than both players and his rookie season should not be overlooked amidst a poor season in Philadelphia. Franco’s (walk-averse) approach is not one that a lot of players have success with in the majors, but Adrian Beltre and Adam Jones have shown that players can be very productive offensively with an impatient power bat as long as they can make contact.” – Craig Edwards, FanGraphs

Streakers: Natkionals + 7, Rangers – 6, Marlins – 5


) (The Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey. Comments about blog issues are welcome. Previous Nubs may be found by scrolling below.)