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December 2009 Archive

(Posted: 12/22/09)

A Healthy Triple Play in the Offing

A former key player on the NY State Democratic team reminded a group of fans the other night that the Dems could be about to complete a political triple play.  He was talking about the health care game and cautioning that extra innings lie ahead before the final out signaling (modest) success is made.  The triple play: from FDR (social security) to LBJ (medicare) to BHO (health care reform).

If the Mets lineup experiences health reform, we know modest success is all the team – and their fans – can hope for in 2010.  The Mets so far have been “monitoring”, “looking at”, “interested in” free agents and players potentially available through trade.  But the lack of significant Mets deal-making has been a source of bafflement here and beyond NY.

The compromising done by the Dem team in the Senate in an effort to get the health reform bill baffled observers and dismayed progressives.  Washington Post columnist Eugene Robinson takes a Nubbian approach in his comment, quoting Casey Stengel’s 1962 lament about the Mets: “Can’t anybody here play this game?” He says Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman and Mary Landrieu know how to play on the political field.  The Republican leaders in both the House and the Senate can play, too.  At this point, 11 months since Obama took office, it's striking how successful Republicans have been in presenting a united front against virtually everything the president and the Democratic congressional majorities are trying to do…”

Team GOP, abetted by many Dem progressives, has thrown rhetorical bean balls at the compromise reform lineup that includes:

1.  Ending denial of coverage based on pre-existing conditions.
2. Ending denial of coverage because of catastrophic illness.
3. Ending insurers' dumping of some beneficiaries for technical reasons
4. Preventing insurers from varying rates regionally and demographically
5. Ending lifetime caps that limit what insurers must pay
6. Ending annual caps on what insurers must pay
7. Requiring insurers to pay more for preventive care and immunizations
8. Keeping young adults on parents' insurance plans into their mid-20s.
9. Banning coverage discrimination against employers based on salary 

It is hard to see how an argument that says such a lineup, which at the very least gets the ball into play, deserves to be sent back to the bushes.  In any event, here is Paul Krugman’s take on his NY Times blog: “The health care bill…represents a rejection of the view that the solution for all problems is to cut some taxes and remove some regulations.  In that sense, what’s happening now,  for all the disappointment it represents for progressives, is a historic moment.”

Everybody’s beating up on the Mets this hot stove season – it is not only happening here.  We’ve said that if the Mets stayed in tip-top health last year they could not have beaten the Phillies.  That applies more than ever this coming season.  MLB.com’s Marty Noble, a Mets beat veteran, minces no words about the 2010 outlook:

“The Mets need to upgrade, no question. But if they do upgrade, and Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana and the other patients aren't healthy, the Mets aren't going to contend anyway.  So, the idea is to enter the season, thinking -- hoping -- health no longer is an issue.  And if it's not, I'd expect the team that won 70 games last season to win at least 81 games in 2010.

“That won't put them on the Phillies' level.   I'm not sure (Jason) Bay would, either.  The Phillies are an exceptional team.”

One of the few brighteners on a dreary hot-stove baseball week: Chicago Tribune columnist Phil Rogers’ take on the Cubs’ Milton Bradley for Mariners’ Carlos Silva deal:   It's a trade of one of the worst Cubs ever for the best batting practice pitcher in the game.”
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The Nub  is off on a holiday road trip.  Back next week.  Merry Christmas everybody. 


 



(Posted: 12/19/09)

The ‘Truth’ in Afghanistan and at Citi Field    

Artie (Dutch) Schopenhauer died in Germany as baseball was gaining popularity in the mid-19th century.  But before he went, Artie developed a pitch that caught on with thinking political fans as well as those in sports arenas.  Truth, he said, is often ridiculed at first, then denied, finally accepted as obvious.

Fans who booed opening day of a “good war” against Afghanistan in 2002 were ridiculed for saying a small-ball strategy aimed at tagging out Osama bin-Laden would have sufficed.  The pro-war majority went into denial when Osama slipped away from our heavy-hitting pursuit.  Now, it can be argued that the truth about that war, despite hopeful words by generals and the commander-in-chief, is obvious.  Ask the British and the Russians, from whose experience we might have learned, and check the record book on how Alexander the Great’s team made out on the Afghan diamond.

For the relevance of Schopenhauer’s sizzler on the comparatively banal field of baseball, we don’t have to look further than Mets-land.  Pessimism about the future of the Mets, shrugged off when voiced several years ago, should have been taken seriously.  That’s clearer today than it has been in a long time.

Thomas Johnson, professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA and Chris Mason, a former foreign service officer in Afghanistan, wrote a sharp, quasi-insiders rejoinder to Skipper Obama’s troop buildup plan.  Here is the way they put it in Foreign Policy magazine:

“Obama is one of the most intelligent men ever to hold the U.S. presidency.  But no intelligent person could really believe that adding 30,000 troops to Afghanistan, a country four times larger than Vietnam, for a year or two, following the same game plan that has resulted in dismal failure there for the past eight years, could possibly have any impact on the outcome of the conflict.  The only conclusion one can reach from the president's speech…is that the administration has made a difficult but pragmatic decision: The war in Afghanistan is unwinnable, and the president's second term and progressive domestic agenda cannot be sacrificed to a lost cause the way that President Lyndon B. Johnson's was for Vietnam. The result of that calculation was what we heard on Dec. 1: platitudes about commitment and a just cause; historical amnesia; and a continuation of the exact  same failed policies that got the United States into this mess back in 2001.”

Former Mets co-owner Nelson Doubleday warned, while memories of the 2000 World Series appearance lingered, that major trouble lay ahead with the boss’s son Jeff Wilpon  taking over the team in 2003.  After firing GM Steve Phillips in June of ‘03 and naming Jim Duquette interim GM, the young Wilpon signed off on the trade of star pitching prospect Scott Kazmir to Tampa Bay for Victor Zambrano, a more experienced pitcher who flopped.  The move presaged a pattern of placing known quantities on the big team’s roster while losing focus on the farm system.  As we know, the pattern insured that the Mets would field name regulars – who even got them into the NLCS in ’06; but, overall, the lack of investment in player development (the Johan Santana deal in ’07, notwithstanding) has left the team hurting for competent replacements when multiple injuries intervene, as they did at Citi Field last season.  The Phillies, for one, don’t have that problem.

Can any fans be happier than those in Philadelphia these days?  Roy Halladay locked up until the middle of the next decade…and all that offense.  Nobody figures to come close to the Phils in the NL East.  But Mariners fans have more to be happy about: With Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee at the top of the rotation, and Chone Figgins reinforcing Ichiro at the top of the order, Seattle has a real shot at winning the AL West.  And, if everything goes right, the M’s could get into the World Series for the first time in the team’s history.  That possibility, however remote, is a cause for mega-rejoicing.  Too bad former Met Endy Chavez won’t be part of the fun.  The Mariners have let him go.  Mets fans - remembering the effort he gave the team in ’06 -’08 - surely hope Endy stays healthy and continues to be an asset wherever he plays.   

Nobody asked us, but…If the elite free-agent choice for the Mets comes down to either Jason Bay, $75 million for five years, or Johnny Damon, $39 million for three, we’d take Damon.  The Mets need a sustaining spark, not a Reyes-like hot and cold one.  Damon could be that.  In a normal free-agent year, Bay would be an upper-middle-level selection, not in the elite class.  And certainly not a spark.
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(`12/15/09)

The Celebrity Game in Our National Pastimes

Liberals like to think Barack Obama became an international icon and Nobel Peace Prize winner because he wasn’t George Bush.  That may be part of the story, but we know he gained automatic celebrity status as the new skipper of Team USA.  And we know how important that status is in baseball and all fields here at home: A-Rod and Derek Jeter are household names far outside Yankee-land; Tiger Woods gets regular front-page play in the NY Times for his off-course activities.

The president (and his first lady) gladly cooperated in the non-political puffery.  He knew his personal popularity could come in handy if poll numbers began plummeting.  Apolitical fans tend to stay loyal to people they put on a pedestal.  The Mets hope they can benefit from the same behavior on the part of their fans.  What both skipper Obama and Jeff Wilpon need now is something to distract supporters from the rough economic and strategic patches their teams are going through.  Celebrity could fill the bill in each case.  Here’s what Stuart Rosenberg, columnist for the Capital Hill newspaper Roll Call, said some time ago about Barack’s status:

“(Since he has attracted a) deeper emotional commitment than many politicians receive…he could retain his popularity - and, with it, political clout on Capitol Hill - because of his (and his family's) celebrity coverage and appeal.”

Or the emotional commitment may be explained in a related way, as columnist Glenn Greenwald did on Salon over the weekend: “(Much) reaction to Obama is dominated by (a) view of him as an inspiring, kind, sophisticated, soothing and mature intellectual.  These are personality types bolstered with sophisticated marketing techniques, not policies, governing approaches or ideologies.”

The Mets know they must attract a name player - one with celebrity potential - if they are to stem the erosion of fan support caused by last year’s revealing collapse.  The Phillies’ in-process deal for Roy Halladay only underlines what the Mets are up against. How critical is their situation (if anyone has missed its reality) can be gleaned from comments made on WEEI, Boston by the MLB Network’s new analyst Peter Gammons.  He used the Mets to reassure Red Sox fans that things could be worse:

“You could be in some markets where people just go, huh, who cares?  The New York Mets have made themselves that way.  The Mets are running around announcing that they have made offers to Jason Bay and now (NY Post’s) Joel Sherman is saying that it is to make sure that people believe that they are actually trying.  That is not what people want to hear.”

Bay, offered $60 million for four years by the Sox, is now unlikely to wind up in Boston because of the expense of the pending John Lackey deal.  So the Mets seem to have a genuine shot at signing him.  The one caveat: if another team offers Bay close to what the Mets agree to pay, he might take the lower number to avoid involvement with a dysfunctional franchise.  The suspicion here - before the Lackey-to-Fenway development - was that the closest thing to a celebrity playing for the Citi Field home team would be old friend Carlos Delgado.  That still may be a good guess.    
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(The  Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey.  Comments
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(Posted: 12/12/09)

What to Do About Dominance of Yankees and Democrats?

Whaddaya know?  The Yankees have added a still-young, stud centerfielder who can hit with power, run like a rabbit, etc.  And, get this: the rap against Curtis Granderson in Detroit was that he wore himself down with his community involvement.  He tried to get everybody interested in the city and in the Tigers.

Getting more of the NYC public involved in the political game was coincidentally the aim of a confab held at St.Francis College in Brooklyn this week.  A group of unofficial players in the pol-field discussed the pros and cons of a distant equivalent to baseball’s trade and free-agent transactions.  The hot potato, chosen by veteran exec Frank Macchiarolla and pitched by rookie author Frank Barry (“The Scandal of Reform”):  nonpartisan elections.

We know it wasn’t money alone that permitted the Yanks to add Granderson to their world-champion lineup; they had to develop tradable young players like Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson.  Nor is money the only issue that should dominate the political debate.  Fans of nonpartisan balloting see it as an all-fields drive for reform, for bringing more balance to the electoral system, much as many fans want baseball’s wealth imbalance reformed.

Nonpartisan balloting would surely make elections more competitive, just as something like financial parity would do the same for pennant races.  Those are both hard sells in NYC, where the Democrats and Yankees have long been dominant in their respective fields.  Fans of the nonpartisan approach say it deserves consideration because the Dems have been able to take their vote-gathering power for granted.  And that has led to shoddy performances - incumbent apathy, irregularities, misconduct, corruption.  Under the nonpartisan game rules, candidates would run without party labels; there would be no primaries – the two top vote-getters would compete in a decisive runoff.  Much unfamiliar excitement could result, and maybe even a boost in voter interest. 

That the present systems hold back talented young players in both fields is well known; the rule in both party politics and baseball is that, no matter how ready you are for the show, you “wait your turn.”  The frequent result in politics is that young talent leaves the game.  If the competition were nonpartisan, they could stay and run - turn or no turn.

Just as money - teams with lots don’t want to give up their advantage - is the stumbling block to baseball parity, so in an inverse way does it contribute to clogging acceptance of the nonparty game: the liberal Dem left worries that the conservative Repub right will recruit wealthy candidates; that Bloomberg-like, they will use their personal fortunes to gain a winning edge in the newly competitive races.  And if that happens, the left fears issues like living wage and affordable housing will be replaced by calls for tax cuts and spending curbs.  The confab group’s conclusion: Only when common ground is reached on such issues does non-partisan reform have a prayer of getting to bat. 
                           
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The groans over the Granderson deal are being heard throughout the AL East, especially in New England.  The Boston Globe’s Dan Shaughnessy worries that the deal, coupled with a lack of Sox upgrade fervor, signals a grim season ahead for The Nation:  The Yankees blew past the Red Sox in 2009 and New York just got better. Granderson is an All-Star leadoff hitter, a defensive artist in center field, and a 30-home run guy in his prime.  Meanwhile, the Sox are standing still and holding the line on their four-year offer for Bay.  If Bay winds up in New York, Anaheim, or Seattle, the Sox are going to have to deal with Scott Boras for Holliday.  Or do nothing and remind us that the kids will be available to help in 2012…”

The Mets are near the top of teams that can ill afford to do nothing.  Desperation to bring fans back to Citi Field figures to drive them to sign at least one of the three elite free agents – Jason Bay, Matt Holliday and John Lackey.  It says here they would need all three to compete with the Phillies, who have premium prospects as well as Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, etc.  Two of the three would assure Metsian “meaningful games” late in the season.  If they blow the budget on a single name player – the most likely scenario - fuhgedaboudit.

Our Less-Than-Nobel Laureate: Obama puts a pretty, intellectual, liberal face on some ugly and decidedly illiberal polices.  Just as George Bush's Christian-based moralizing let conservatives feel good about America regardless of what it does, Obama's complex and elegiac rhetoric lets many liberals do the same…(The neocon consensus:) ”If even this Democratic President, beloved by liberals, announces to the world that we have the unilateral right to wage war and that doing so creates Peace and crushes Evil, and does so at a Nobel Peace Prize ceremony of all places, doesn't that end the argument for good? - Glenn Greenwald, Salon
                                
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(Posted: 12/8/09)

A Jason Bay/David Paterson Snap Quiz

What do NY Governor David Paterson and Red Sox left fielder Jason Bay have in common?   If you follow our two national pastimes, the answer is easy:  Both are looking for the best possible deals as they take their next professional step.  For Bay it’s about money; he declined a four-year, $60 million offer from the Sox to see if he could do better as a free agent.  For Paterson it’s about pride; he refuses to remove himself from the 2010 gubernatorial contest absent an offer that provides prestige and minimal loss of face.

We’ve long been fans of Paterson (with whom we worked briefly) so we regret   foreseeing his withdrawal from the gubernatorial field.  But, with poll numbers persistently down and Andrew Cuomo on deck, even diehards must face that inevitability.  Let’s look at David’s options: Team Obama owes him for, among other things, the obvious slights inflicted by the skipper during visits to NY.  And the state Democratic team let Paterson down by allowing loud party whispers to ease him toward the showers.  Those brush-backs should earn David a purposeful pass to another status-filled position.

The Red Sox owe Bay nothing after the four-year offer, but they need him - or a reasonable facsimile - to keep pace with what their Nation considers the Evil Empire.  The Yankees could snap him up the way they did Johnny Damon four years ago. But the guess here is that Bay will not attract a more generous non-Sox offer; the new defense metrics showing him to be sub-par as an outfielder undermine his bargaining position.  Team Obama could dangle a deputy AG job in DC for David’s consideration; he has DA office experience.  And local Dems could hope a state judgeship would satisfy him.  But if the stubborn Paterson waits them out, fouling off pitches long enough, he should get a fat one in the zone. Neither Cuomo nor the party would want Andrew competing in a primary against another African-American for governor, as he did Carl McCall in 2002. The obvious play is to make room on the federal bench for NY’s underappreciated skipper.

The Mets could certainly use Bay but the team’s many as-yet-unfilled holes make him unaffordable.  Their hot-stove dealings got off to an inauspicious start.  While the Sox, Phils, Braves and Mariners signed top-tier players Marco Scutaro, Placido Polanco, Billy Wagner and Chone Figgins, the Mets went the cull route, lining up catchers Henry Blanco and Chris Coste.  For their fans, the trend so far is disturbingly familiar.

Joe Girardi stayed with Brian Bruney after his stuff as a reliever became suspect. Joe Torre did the same with Scott Proctor two years ago.  When they finally felt enough was enough, the Yanks shipped Proctor in-season to the LA Dodgers.  Bruney they kept until yesterday, when he became a National.

Pearl Harbor day lob from left field on America’s wartime morality: The intensity of (the 12/7/41) shock was rooted less in Japanese chicanery than in America’s race-based assumption of technical and martial superiority.  As for morality, the Japanese attack was aimed against genuine military targets. The US revenge attack, a bombing raid led by Jimmy Doolittle on Tokyo some months later, was aimed purely at civilians.”  - James Carroll, Boston Globe
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(Posted: 12/5/09)

Did Obama Do a Jeter and Come Through on Afghanistan?

Barack and Derek: linked by many baseball fans for their similar bi-racial backgrounds and the classy way they carry themselves.  Tuesday night at West Point, Skipper Obama came to rhetorical bat in the clutch.  Would he come through on Afghanistan the way Jeter so often does when the game is on the line?

Our scorecard shows the president connected in some ways, looked clumsy in others.  He turned on the pitches of skeptics early, driving off their arguments against the troop buildup.  “We must keep the pressure on al-Quaeda,” he said; “and to do that we must increase the stability…of our partners in the region.”  Doubts as to whether he was locked in disappeared when the skipper launched another key hit: “We know that al-Quaida… seek(s) nuclear weapons, and we have every reason to believe they want to use them.”

Barack was vintage Derek when he inside-out-ed a hit to right announcing the build-up, then pulled the ball to left, decreeing the 18-month deadline.  His performance lost its edge, however, when it took on a cloying Yankee Stadium-like “Honor America” tone.  He invoked “freedom” and “liberty” four times, the equivalent of hitting cheap-buzz laser fouls on inside pitches.   And, although he spoke of our “values” as the “moral source of America’s authority” and referred to the influence of our “moral suasion,” he never acknowledged the deaths of countless innocent people for which we are morally responsible.  Indeed, when Katie Couric asked CBS correspondent Mandy Clark in Afghanistan the reaction there to the speech, her first words were: “The people here worry about civilian casualties.  More troops mean more casualties.”

Not bad, skipper, but not quite up to the Jeter standard.
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It will be a surprise if there isn’t just a two-team contest to add the Jays’ Roy Halladay this winter:  the Yankees and Red Sox will likely go mano-a-mano to deal for the Toronto ace.  A Yankee front four in 2010 consisting of  Halladay, C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte would reinforce the Bombers’ already existing dominance in their division, league and all of mlb.  The Sox must make a desperate effort to stop that from happening.  But principal owner John Henry seems to be bracing for the worst.  He’s calling for a heavier tax than already exists on teams like the Yankees that are willing to spend more than $200 million a year on player payroll.  Halladay is due $16 million this coming year.  He is expected to command a five-year-deal paying him close to $120 million after 2010.  Sure sounds like he’ll be working for those Yankee dollars.

The Mets’ maligned farm system produced two of the Arizona Fall League’s top 10 prospects as selected by Baseball America: pitcher Jenrry Mejia and first baseman Ike Davis.  Mejia, a 20-year-old righthander,  finished sixth on the list despite an indifferent 1-3 W-L record and an ERA of 12.56.  He struck out 16 in 14.1 innings during which he walked 13.  Davis, who batted .341, finished 10th.  Nationals prospect Stephen Strasburg led the list, which included no other team with more than one player.

Baseball America was less complimentary to the Mets in it farm-system overview, calling the system thin and putting it in the lower half of its 30-team rankings.  The five top-ranked systems: Rangers, Rays, Giants, Phillies, Indians.  The Yankees and Red Sox were in the second – “best of the rest” – level in the top half of the rankings. 
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(Posted: 12/1/09)

To Rebuild or Rejigger: Choice Facing Political and Ball Teams

Political teams, like those in baseball, face a tough choice after a losing season: should they stay the course (intent on making changes for the better) or recognize the need to rebuild.  Staying the course is the more tempting of the two; it entails tweaking rather than turnover.  Team Obama, which inherited the White House franchise, seems inclined to play the Mets’ game:  to upgrade rather than discard components of the previous disaster.

Just as the Mets believe that Johan Santana, Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran plus well-chosen additions will insure competitiveness and fan-support, so Team Obama clearly thinks following Team Bush’s approach to war-making and civil liberties will keep voters rooting for the players now in charge.

As the skipper prepares to announce both the latest troop buildup in and ultimate exit from Afghanistan, he knows he’s following a familiar play-book: For more than a half-century, Team USA leaders have bowed to pressure from the militants in the national grandstand.  We must fight, those fans said, to “save” China, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, etc., and, now, Afghanistan.  Most men in the dugout doubted the validity of the war-making argument, but they knew going along could achieve at least one important save – keeping their team on the field. 

Power-hitting historian Gary Wills, writing in the NY Review of Books, reminds us of the successive team record on foreign playing fields.  It leads to a tough choice of his own concerning Skipper Obama:

“I am told by people I respect that Barack Obama cannot pull out of both Iraq and Afghanistan without becoming a one-term president. I think that may be true. The charges from various quarters would be toxic—that he was weak, unpatriotic, sacrificing the sacrifices that have been made, betraying our dead, throwing away all former investments in lives and treasure. All that would indeed be brought against him, and he could have little defense in the quarters where such charges would originate.

“These are the arguments that have kept us in losing efforts before. They are the ones that made presidents Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon pass on to their successors in the presidency the draining and self-lacerating Vietnam War. They are the arguments that made President George W. Bush pass on two wars to his successor.

“I have great hopes for the Obama presidency, even in his first term, and especially if he could have two terms to realize the exciting new things he aspires to do in the White House. But I would rather see him a one-term president than have him pass on another unwinnable war to the person who will follow him in office.”

If Skipper Obama’s double clutch on Afghanistan tonight is dismaying to fans in left field, imagine how they feel about his reversed stance on Honduras.  After swinging out early against the coup that overthrew lefty leader Manuel Zelaya, he switched to the other side:  While most of Latin America has refused to recognize the weekend election of a rightist Honduran businessman, Team Obama says it will accept the result and lock in its swing accordingly.  One happy observer: GOP player Jim DeMint, who took credit for the change in a press statement that said - "Senator secures commitment for U.S. to back Nov. 29 elections even if Zelaya is not reinstated."  The White House has let the statement stand.
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The just-completed Arizona Fall League, which in ’08 helped catapult Tommy Hanson to Atlanta’s starting rotation, was a good showcase this year for two Yankee prospects: outfielder Colin Curtis and third baseman Brandon Laird.  Curtis hit .397, second best in the league; he showed some power, too, swatting five home runs in 20 games.  Laird batted .333 and was in the running for MVP, won by Oakland’s outfield prospect Grant Desme, the HR leader with 11.  The Mets’ first-base hopeful Ike Davis hit .341 with four HRs.  The Nationals’ mega-bonus-baby Stephen Strasburg led the league in wins, going 4-1.  He struck out 26 in 19 innings; his ERA, however, was an underwhelming 4.26.  Another positive note: Baseball America says Strasburg and White Sox reliever prospect Sergio Santos had the best fastballs in the league.  

Baseball fans who, like the Nub, enjoy meaningful frostbelt NFL games in the late-season open air, have little to look forward to this year.  Three and probably all four of the NFC division winners will be sunbelt or dome teams – Dallas remains on the bubble in the east.  In the AFC, two of the four leading teams are sunbelt/domers.  Indianapolis is earning home-dome advantage throughout the playoffs, as is New Orleans in the NFC.  It looks as though games in Foxborough, MA and Cincinnati, hosted by the Patriots and Bengals, will be the only “football-as-it-should-be-played” post-season contests that appeal to us marginal, cozy living-room spectators.  Of course, the game between the Cowboys and the still-alive Giants at the Meadowlands this Sunday is one of a few pre-playoff matchups that could make for worthwhile viewing.
                          - o -
(The  Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey.  Comments
to dickstar@aol.com are welcome, as are subscription requests. 
Previous Nubs can be found by scrolling below.)

 



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