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May 2008 Archive

(Posted 5/31/08)

 

It’s not throwing a curve to say race will be the decisive factor in the presidential campaign.  There’s so much agreement on the matter it is becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy.  Polling stats suggest older whites - especially older workers and women - will not vote for a black.  A new Pew Research Center report says half of all white women surveyed now feel negatively about Barack Obama.  That’s up 13 percent since February.   The hope on the Obama team is that Hispanic support will make up for at least some of the problematic white vote.  How the Hispanics will hit in the polling-booth clutch is the big question.

 

For Obama fans, the pre-game signs are not encouraging.  Psychiatrists say people who are not overtly racist - including African-American men themselves - betray a subconsciously negative view of black males in general.  In the case of dark-skinned Hispanics, there is resentment at being mistaken for blacks.  In baseball, Latinos tend to keep their distance from black, white and Asian teammates, mainly because of language and cultural differences.  Ask Willie Randolph how hard it is to get his Spanish-speaking players on the same wavelength with their teammates.  The Daily News’ Filip Bondy gave us a glimpse of the non-meshing problem as seen in the Mets locker room before a game the other day:

 

“The (non-Hispanic) players were lounging together on one couch, watching television.  The Latin players were hanging out… across the room, watching a different  set.  The place (lacked) energy and anticipation…Nobody…seemed…concerned (about the upcoming ballgame)…The 2008 Mets (seem)…disconnected.”    

 

Baseball’s general separatism is more ethnically specific in the real, non-baseball world.  The Miami Herald’s Carlos Alberto Montaner amplifies the black-Hispanic split this way:  

 

“African Americans and Hispanics are two not-well-integrated minorities. They live in separate neighborhoods… black Cubans and black Dominicans would rather live among Hispanics than among African Americans… If Obama loses, he will be the victim of precisely these uncomfortable but real ethnic factors.

 

“That's what Hillary Clinton meant when she warned about Obama's likely ineligibility. Because McCain is a moderate Republican, he irritates practically no white Democrat, Republican or independent who might hesitate to vote for an African American…And in that sense, McCain stands to win.”  

                                       -     -     -

The Mets, tabbed here awhile ago as a “little better than .500 team,” have fallen back a game under the perfectly mediocre mark.  The message of the pitching match-ups going into the four-game Dodgers series was that the home team could expect to win no more than two, and probably wind up the weekend just under .500 again.  Halfway through the series, the expectation looks to be on-target.  Fans know the odds are on Mike Pelfrey losing today, Johan Santana winning tomorrow.    

The Yankees have reached .500 again, moving out of the AL East basement, a half-game ahead of Baltimore.  The AL East is the only division in which just six games separate the first and last teams.

 

Streakers: Tampa Bay and the the Phillies have won eight of 11 after last night’s victories.  The Rays still lead Boston by a game in the AL East/  The Phils have leapfrogged the Marlins to take over first in the NL East.  They look like they could be on top for a long while.

 

 

(Posted 5/29/08)

 

With the regular baseball season almost a third over, and the general election campaign soon to begin, it’s time to check out how the big hitter, money, has affected the pennant and political races.

 

The early evidence is that dollars have had a non-decisive impact: only half of six MLB division leaders – the White Sox, Angels and Cubs – are among top 10 payroll teams; the White Sox are fifth at $121 million, the Angels sixth at $119 million, the Cubs seventh at $118 million.  Two of the three other leaders - Florida and Tampa Bay - are at the bottom of the money league, the Marlins, number 30 (of 30) at $21 million, the Rays, number 29, at $43 million.  Arizona, number 23, at $66 million, is the other modest payroll team.

 

Although Team Obama dominated in the political fundraising league, the campaign’s money was not a major factor in his nearly complete Dem primary victory.  At least, that’s how US News and World Report’s Michael Barone sees the situation:

“This election has been different from any other since 1960 i(n) that neither money nor the thing it mostly buys -- television advertising -- has made much difference.   Obama(‘s)… money advantage didn't enable him to close the deal and beat Hillary Clinton in (big states like) Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania (and) Indiana.

“Most of his delegate advantage…he owes to caucuses, in which money doesn't much matter. And if money mattered among Republicans, their nominee would have been Mitt Romney, who probably ran more TV ads than all his party rivals put together. Obama will massively outspend McCain from here on out, but that doesn't guarantee him victory.”

                                               -     -     -

Speaking of money, Boston’s $103 million (for six years) pitcher Dice-K Matsuzaka is  8-0, but has been less than sharp this season and is now experiencing shoulder strain.  The Globe’s Nick Cafardo says Dice-K’s “tedious, laborious” outings are no longer the “event” they once were.  But is he worth the money?  “In this day and age, when starting pitchers are at a premium, certainly.”

Thoughts while watching the Mets’ overmatched Double-A call-up Nick Evans swinging wildly at a third-strike pitch the other night:  Send him back to Binghamton forthwith; sign someone at a bargain rate who belongs in the bigs like Scott Hatteberg, just released by the Reds, or Trot Nixon, batting around .300 in Triple-A with the Tucson Sidewinders.   

A “championship-caliber team” - Billy Wagner’s description - can’t hope to play like contenders with a far-from-ready rookie in left field and a veteran third baseman (Fernando Tatis) on emergency duty in right.    

 

 

 

(Posted 5/27/08)

 

We know that, as art imitates life, so baseball mimics politics.  Didn’t the major leagues cheer on the war in Iraq with seventh-inning support-the-troops observances?  And still do, to some extent.  But Yankee-Go-Home developments today remind us, that six years ago, as the 2002 run-up to the war began, politics and baseball marched in labeling-related lockstep.  In January ‘02, President Bush intensified his post-9/11 name-calling: Iraq, Iran and North Korea, he told the world, comprised an “axis of evil.”  Possibly taking his cue from Bush, Red Sox president Larry Lucchino later described the Yankees as the “evil empire.” (It was not the threat of a trade war, but the Yanks’ outbidding other teams for Cuban pitcher Jose Contreras that aroused Lucchino’s ire.).

 

In the fall of 2004, Sports Illustrated congratulated the Red Sox for “figur(ing) out how to beat the Yankees: you’ve become them.”  Today, the Red Sox may be seen, if not as an evil empire, then diabolically clever.   The Yankees - no longer the “Damn Yankees” - are considered almost benign spendthrifts, a $209 million team that has lost the knack for getting its money’s worth.

 

Bush has used hundreds of billions in spending on arms to bully any apparently adversarial nation.  He has succeeded - according to a current Pew Center poll of 15 foreign countries - to have made an evil empire of the U.S., “entrench(ing) anti-Americanism” throughout much of the globe.  The president no sooner added Syria to his “threats” list than he suggested to the Israeli parliament the other day that talking with the likes of Damascus smacked of “appeasement.”  Israel’s rebuffing response was cheered by many, including International Herald Tribune columnist William Pfaff:

 

“It has been an unexpected pleasure to find that the Israelis have been in secret negotiations with Syria -- the very people who are supposed to benefit from the (U.S.’s) refusal to talk with ‘terrorist states’... The position defended by…the Bush administration…(is)…that American foreign relations with other than allies should be based on…intimidation, economic and political compulsion, blackmail and sanctions, and public invective and insult combined with sanctimonious and moralizing ‘public diplomacy’.”

Anticipating the Pew survey results, Pfaff issued this caution: ”In practice this usually is neither successful nor dignified, undermining American credibility and respect.”

                                         -     -     -

One NY fan’s score-checking experience Sunday afternoon: Mets trailing Rockies, 3-1, after five-and-a-half innings.  Yankees trailing Mariners, 5-2, after seven-and-a-half.  Strong sense the Mets were finished and the Yankees still had a shot.  Finals: Rockies 4, Mets 1.  Yanks 6, Mariners 5.  Conclusion (reinforced): something indispensable (choose one or more) - youth, leadership, spirit, chemistry, talent – is missing in Mets-land.

SNY’s Gary Cohen to Ron Darling in first inning of yesterday’s game against Florida: “We’ve talked about how the Mets get down when they fall behind.”

 

How important is each game this week to Willie Randolph?  SI’s Jon Heyman puts it this way: “The first-place Marlins… the Wilpons can't be pleased to be 5-and-a-half (now 6-and-a-half) games behind that Florida team with a $20 million payroll. Which happens to be exactly one-seventh the Mets’ $140 million payroll.  While the Marlins are playing like they have nothing to lose, the Mets have been merely playing to lose in recent days. To club officials, the Mets appear to be pressing. And as we all know from last year's collapse, this isn't a group that plays well when it's pressing.”

 

 

(Posted 5/24/08)

 

Playing to the grandstand, a ploy put to use by people in the public spotlight, has been on conspicuous display this spring in baseball and politics.  Hank Steinbrenner, the Yankees’ now-most visible boss, let the press amplify his repeated complaints to Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi about team performance.  The team’s fans got the message from a co-owner who is clearly PR-conscious.

 

More consequential has been the grandstanding of Willie Randolph and Hillary Clinton, who, unlike Steinbrenner, are competitive performers in their respective fields.  Willie, we know, complained publicly about the way Mets fans were perceiving him because of the team’s TV coverage.  He wasn’t passive, he said, as depicted.  Poor Willie: his timing could hardly have been worse; the Mets are not executing, not durable, less-than-harmonious as a group and a not-much-better than .500 team.  In short, there’s a lot of on-field stuff to keep Willie from being distracted.  SNY’s Ron Darling identified Randolph’s failure to keep his eye on the ball in a few pointed words: “Who cares what anyone says?  You care about wins."  

Hillary neglected the fundamentals of the party primary election game, playing instead to the general-public grandstand.  While Team Obama took what The Politico’s Ben Smith called a “Bill James-esque approach” to delegate counting, Hillary looked beyond the lines of the immediate contests; she concentrated on positioning herself for the electoral world series.  The New Republic’s John Judis suggests that a pitch she made last September while “poised to put the (Iraq war powers) issue behind her,” was what ultimately lost her the game:

“She backed a resolution introduced by Independent Democrat Joe Lieberman and Republican Jon Kyl directed at Iran's "destabilizing influence" in Iraq and at its Revolutionary Guard…At the time, Vice President Dick Cheney, with Lieberman's support, was beating war drums against Iran; and the resolution…seemed to be the kind of measure that could eventually serve as a justification, however tenuous, for another preventive war.  Of all the Democratic candidates, Clinton alone voted for it.”

That eye-off-the-ball vote, Judis says, “confirmed the worst fears of anti-war Democrats about her foreign policy inclinations. Her rivals denounced her vote, and she had to answer for it in ads, mailings, and debates through early January.  It gave Obama an enormous push at a time when he seemed to be floundering and laid the groundwork for his success in fund-raising and in the Iowa caucuses.”

                                                -     -     -

Local lamentations about the NYM’s having been exhausted, here is a comment from Gary Shelton, of the St.Petersburg, FL Times, that could have been about the Met-thuselahs:

“Having spent a little time being both, I feel qualified to say this: Being young is better than being old…running is preferable to standing still, energy is better than entitlement and today is better than yesterday. Ripening is better than rotting, playing hard is better than punching a clock…We are talking about…rosters. We are talking about reality.”

 

 

 (Posted 5/22/08)

 

Derek Jeter tells of a time when he was still in high school, returning home to Kalamazoo, Michigan after the Yankees made him their number 1 pick in the 1992 draft.  He thought he’d get a hero’s welcome; instead he heard racial epithets.  As a good schoolboy basketball player in Hawaii, Barack Obama heard somebody call him a “coon.”

 

The similarity of bias-based incidents is one connection between the bi-racial notables. Jeter’s later experience might be another, might find a parallel in Obama’s presidential campaign.  Derek quickly established his skill as a ballplayer.  His achievements on the field, which made him an admired figure coast to coast, served to discourage race-baiting fans from targeting him.  Furthermore, the familiar, close-to-daily repetition of Jeter’s feats surely cultivated color-blindness among many fans. The Yankees captain says he never hears racial remarks directed at him at any ballpark.

 

While Obama cannot hope to win over the hard-core anti-black voters who have surfaced in many states, he can, through his Jeter-like achievements in the political field, attract the admiration of voters with open minds.  Both the player and the politician have an additional approval-winning advantage: their physical features.  They benefit from the scientific fact that we tend to like people who look like - or almost like - us.  Jeter’s many appearances in TV commercials attest to corporate appreciation of the way he looks.  A white voter, examining Obama’s picture in a newspaper the other day, said with a hint of recognition: “He’s not bad-looking.”

                                 -     -     -

The Yankees have looked bad, but it’s reasonable to assume the Rays and Orioles will fade and that the Red Sox will be the AL East’s one other competitive team.  That gives the Yanks at least a shot at the wild card.  The Mets, with two other competitive teams – the Phils and Braves – in the NL East, don’t figure to have the same opportunity.  It will be win or go home in that division as it was last year.  Joe Girardi brought the Marlins back into contention two years ago after a more abysmal start than his present team is experiencing.  But Newsday’s Ken Davidoff sounds this cautionary note about the Yanks’ ability to rebound:  “This Yankees team feels different…(Robinson) Cano, armed with a long-term deal, has played horribly, and (Johnny)Damon, (Jason) Giambi and Bobby Abreu play like they aged dog years over the winter.”

 

The Mets’ failure to jell has made Omar Minaya an irresistible negative target in some quarters, including this.  But fair is fair: In addition to miraculously obtaining Johan Santana, Omar deserves high praise for the deal with the Washington Nationals that we here considered a bad mistake.  Lastings Millidge seemed too valuable a prospect to give up for Brian Schneider and Brian Church.  Omar clearly saw something solid in those players not visible to many of us.  Schneider only hit .235 last season, Church .272. with a high percentage of strikeouts.  Both have started fast, offensively and defensively.  A tentative “very well done” to the Mets’ GM. 

 

Mets fans should hope that, despite his overzealous, over-the-hill hirings, Minaya sticks around for awhile.  Why?  It was he, Omar, who, on arrival, negotiated the withdrawal of Jeff Wilpon from the role of Mets Meddler-in-Chief.  The Boss’s son, you may remember, devised - with figurehead GM Jim Duquette, Rick Peterson and, probably, Tony Bernazard -  the masterful deal that sent Scott Kazmir to Tampa Bay for Victor Zambrano.   No one should want J Wilpon to retrieve his pre-Minaya authority, which  might happen if Omar is fired.  Incidentally, although Willie Randolph has little to recommend him these days, he does have Jeff Wilpon’s non-support going for him. Newsday’s Wallace Matthews reports that young Wilpon opposed Willie’s hiring three-and-a-half years ago.  To be out of favor with the Boss’s son is reason enough to cut Willie some slack.      

 

 

 (Posted 5/20/08)

 

Longtime NY baseball fans know the linkage: Republicans root for the Yankees, Democrats root for the Mets.  The generalization had more to do with money than with politics (although George Steinbrenner has always been a GOP insider).  Both teams are spending now, however, and it’s the Mets that have a close connection to Republicans.

 

At least, in one respect…

 

Neither the team nor the party seems to be operating with a fresh approach, an innovative plan for victory.  Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia, former skipper of the GOP National Committee, says, for one thing, it’s a mistake for his party to stay close to George Bush if it wants to win in November.  Despite just watching a two-game sweep of the Yankees, most media people see the Mets as staying too close to last year’s losing script, trying to win with too many un-meshing mercenaries. 

Davis sees the allegiance to Bush as symptomatic of an overriding GOP problem: “What I ask is, what has changed since November '06 when the voters threw us out? Usually, when a business has a down year, you retool, you come back. We haven't retooled at all.  I mean, I think they know they need to retool, but political leaders are traditionally risk-averse so they do the same old, same old, same old…We (need to) come up with a new plan.”  (Interview with Al Hunt of Bloomberg News)

New Yorker columnist George Packer says the Republicans may not need a plan to win in November; the Democrats again could find a way to lose: “It (may be that) Democrats still can’t win the Presidency without the working-class Americans who remain the swing vote and this year are up for grabs more than ever.”

The Mets’ plan to win is familiar: it consists of reaching outside the organization for players to fill holes.  Only five of their 25-man roster are home-grown: Aaron Heilman, Mike Pelfrey, Jose Reyes, Joe Smith and David Wright. The team has neither a single rookie nor a single genuine prospect in Triple-A. 

 

“This is one strange team,”  says SI’s John Donovan, “still looking for someone -- a manager, a leadoff guy? -- to get them going.”

 

“Remember when you mixed the wrong ingredients in chemistry class? Reminds me of the Mets.” – Nick Cafardo, Boston Globe

 

A week before Memorial Day, it doesn’t take much predictive courage to identify four can’t-miss playoff teams: Boston (now with a second young no-hit pitcher), LA Angels, Arizona and the Cubs.  As of now, we can anticipate the tightest division races in the NL East and AL Central. 

 

Latest report on Pedro Martinez – according to ESPN: he’ll be back with the Mets by July 1.  You’ll remember Pedro originally said he’d return by the end of April, then it was the end of May.  Having talked to Pedro’s handlers, however, Peter Gammons assures us that this time the former Red Sox ace will be strong and effective.  One thing the report makes clear: Pedro’s PR apparatus, if not his body, is alive and well.   

 

 

(Posted 5/17/08)

 

Billy Wagner and Barack Obama have a similar problem: they’re being crowded into lobbing their verbal pitches rather than letting them fly.  Wagner, you’ll remember, publicly targeted Met teammate Oliver Perez for his collapse in a game against Arizona two weeks ago.  The brush-back left the Mets brass displeased.  Willie Randolph said Wagner should have fired away privately.  Since then Wagner has gone out of his way to praise Perez’s new-found “competitiveness” and until Thursday withheld his candor despite several abysmal performances by his teammates.  But on Thursday - after a 1-0 loss - he orally low-bridged the team’s leading regulars in general, refraining from naming names (although he did gesture at Carlos Delgado’s locker).

 

Obama has had to pitch around a key issue on the question of how peace between Israel and Palestine can be secured:  whether to give democratically elected Hamas a place at the bargaining table.  A majority of polled Israeli citizens say Hamas should be involved, its pledge to destroy their country notwithstanding.  But powerful pro-Israel voices in the U.S. say Hamas’s leaders are terrorists and therefore disqualified from the peace process.

 

When the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg asked Obama about Hamas, he ducked away from his usual willingness to talk in terms of reaching out to adversaries:

 

“They are a terrorist organization and I’ve repeatedly condemned them. I’ve repeatedly said, and I mean what I say: since they are a terrorist organization, we should not be dealing with them until they recognize Israel, renounce terrorism, and abide by previous agreements.”

 

Obama surely understands that such a stance, setting pre-conditions to possible negotiations, dooms President Bush’s peace initiative.  But he also recognizes the political clout of Israel’s uncompromising supporters.  Except on the question of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, which he called “not helpful” and a “constant wound”, Obama, in the words of Salon’s Glenn Greenwald, “virtually wraps himself in (the Israeli) flag.” 

 

Despite Barack’s generally pro-Israel responses to Goldberg, many hard-right U.S. Zionists disliked what they heard.  The comment of National Review’s David Frum is typical:  “Do I believe that he would be cavalier with Israel's security?.. That he will "engage" Hamas…for exactly the same reasons that he will seek to "engage" Iran and Syria? Yes I do.  He may consider himself Israel's friend.  But he will be a dangerous friend.” 

 

The flap caused by the Obama interview prompts this question from Greenwald:

“Has there ever been another country to which American politicians were required to pledge their uncritical, absolute loyalty the way they are, now, with Israel?” 

                        

Wagner’s basic gripe about the Mets is his teammates’ lack of accountability.  Most of the well-paid players seem to shrug off defeats after performing zombie-like when trailing in the late innings.  The late Joe Garagiola had a name for such players: “dead bodies.” Omar Minaya and Willie Randolph must share the blame for such moribund personnel, Omar for signing them, Willie for not lighting at least a flicker under them.  Then there is the embarrassingly unproductive player development unit; in short, if the Mets don’t salvage this season, Fred Wilpon can find enough culprits to clean house.

                             

Accountability in the House That Ruth Built stops at Brian Cashman’s door.  Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman says Cashman’s so-far bad gamble that rookies Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy would be effective starters is a bone in Hank Steinbrenner’s throat: ”(Hughes and Kennedy) have combined for zero wins so far this year, putting the target on Cashman's back…(Steinbrenner’s) most pointed behind-the-scene complaints…(concern)…Cashman(‘s)…successful…argu(ment) to keep Hughes and Kennedy rather than trade them for Johan Santana…Of Hank and the Santana deal, one Yankees insider said: ‘He won't give up on that one’.''

 

NY stat city: Except for won-loss record, 20-22 compared to 20-19, the Yanks have better stats than the Mets.  Joe Girardi’s team is seventh in hitting (.258) and fielding (.987) in the 14-team AL; the Mets are 11^th in hitting (.256) and 24^th in fielding (.981) in the 16-team NL.  The Mets have made two more errors - 23 - in 39 games than the Yanks have made in 42.

 

                                                  - o -

(The  Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey.  Comments

to dickstar@aol.com are welcome.  Previous Nubs can be found by clicking below.)

 

 

 (Posted 5/15/08)

 

As a self-described baseball fan growing up in a Chicago suburb, Hillary Clinton surely heard of the Class B league with teams in Iowa, Indiana and Illinois.  The so-called Three Eye League had one of the most colorful reputations in the minors as it operated without interruption dating back to 1901 (through 1961).

 

Three I’s in the political league have been linked to Hillary’s presidential setback, beginng with Inevitability.  Hendrik Hertzberg, who lined up the three in this week’s New Yorker, reminds us of what had been Clinton’s all-but-certain victorious status:

 

“(Hillary was)one of the most famous women in the world, whose arsenal included a huge war chest, backed by a fund-raising apparatus unparalleled in Democratic politics; the support of the great majority of Democratic officeholders ready to declare a preference; and, as her chief surrogate, the most successful Democratic politician of the past forty years.”

 

Hertzberg says Illinois played a role in Hillary’s defeat – choosing not to return to her home state (instead of NY) after her White House days was a key error of omission: “She could have settled in and sought her Senate seat there, in 2004…Barack Obama would (then) still be a local or regional up-and-comer and, most likely, a Hillary supporter.”

 

As speculative as the Illinois theory may be, Hertzberg’s third I is indisputable; and for many Democrats it was the single most influential issue: I number 3 is Iraq. “If she had opposed authorizing the Iraq war (in 2002),” says Hertzberg, “ the activists—grassroots and netroots—might have mobilized for her rather than against her. She might have cruised to the nomination, and the Democratic Party might now be basking in the warm glow of being about to make history by electing the first woman President.”     

 

Hertzberg does not add the full-circle postscript – that with the arrogance of inevitability, Hillary refused to apologize for or even say her war powers vote was a mistake.  Only late in the campaign did she publicly regret not having voted differently.

                           -     -     -

Who can blame Fred Wilpon for expecting more bang for the $138 million he’s

invested in the Mets this season?  It’s a wonder he waited as long as he did to call an emergency meeting last weekend (reported by MLB.com) to issue what clearly was a pre-warning to Omar Minaya, Willie Randolph, et al.  Wilpon surely said he feels as Mets fans do – dismay over the way the team is playing.  He presumably gave the green light for the firing of $2 million bust Jorge Sosa.  And, according to the MLB report, “above-the-field” firings could occur if the team doesn’t at least stay close to the top in the NL East.

 

Hank Steinbrenner feels about the $209 million Yankees the way Wilpon does about the Mets.  As Kevin Kernan reported in the NY Post, Steinbrenner wants the injury-impaired NYY;s  to “play harder.”  Both high-payroll teams lack spark as well as solid pitching.  The Phillies have no better pitching than the Mets, but, boy, do they have spark.  Brian Cashman may be in as big a trouble as Minaya if the Yanks don’t stay near enough to the Red Sox, who have injury issues of their own, to win, if nothing else, a wild card berth. 

 

                                                                                                             -  Boston Globe

(Posted 5/13/08)

 

Pedro Martinez and Hillary Clinton are hoping that early June will be remembered as comeback time for each of them.  Pedro will be returning to the Mets rotation after pulling a hamstring in the first week of the season.  Hillary will be winding up a half-year of political barnstorming in the Dem presidential series.  She believes she can demonstrate in the remaining contests that she would do better than Barack Obama in the fall classic against John McCain.

 

Pedro and Hillary have had admirable winning careers in their respective fields. They deserve to hang in there as long as they think they have a shot.  But the whispered banter about one and the out-loud buzz about the other is that each is finished, for this season at the very least.

 

Pedro was bombed in his one and only outing after a shortened spring training in which he allegedly looked sharp.  That he somehow has rejuvenated his stuff over the past several weeks is implausible.  But he’ll get a chance to prove the skeptics wrong.  Barring a miracle, Hillary won’t be so fortunate; it figures to be over for her in June.

 

The pop-up-psychological explanation for Pedro’s slow recovery - he first suggested he’d be back by the end of last month - is that he knows he’s through and he’s putting off the inevitable confirmation of that fact.  Hillary’s stance seems delusional.  Most press-box observers see her campaign death throes as self-destructive and worse.  Columnists David Brooks and Mark Shields put it this way on the PBS NewsHour:

 

BROOKS:  I don't blame her for wanting to take a victory lap in West Virginia and Kentucky and other places.  But to keep on attacking and to keep on attacking when you know, first of all, the divisions in the party are not just ideological divisions. They're along age lines, racial lines, education lines. These are deep psychological divisions, which are potentially dangerous.

 

And every day you stay in the race, you're immobilizing Obama,.. He does not have the power to end this thing.  Only she has the power.

 

SHIELDS:  Making the case (in USA Today) that, "He can't carry (working-class whites), and I can." This is not only unhelpful; it's destructive to your party and your party's chances...

 

If you get out gracefully on your own terms… you can kind of write your own exit lines. You can write your own farewell address.  The longer she stays and the more the conclusion is that it's over and she's just dead woman walking, then you get all the obituaries being written by (others).”                                   

                        -     -     -

Fans in the NYC area with cable had a chance to watch three “David’s” - the Rays, Nats and Twins - slay three would-be baseball “Goliaths,” the Yanks, Mets and Red Sox.  The Yanks, without A-Rod and Jorge Posada, were overmatched in Tampa.  The Mets, without reliably decent pitching when Johan Santana and John Maine are taking their turns, have played .500 ball at home against the doormat Pirates, Reds and Nationals.  The Red Sox lost a weekend series to the Twins, despite what Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire calls their ability to hit you with “field goals” instead of runs.   

 

Several pages of Michael Lewis’ 2003 bestseller “Moneyball” are devoted to Billy Beane’s efforts to persuade the Red Sox to trade a “fat Double-A third baseman” named Kevin Youklis to his Oakland Athletics.  Beane wanted to draft Youklis in 2001 but allowed the A’s player development people to talk him out of it, to his regret.  To Beane and his then-assistant Paul DePodesta, Youklis was the “Greek god of walks”; a god who then, in 2002, was beginning to hit for power.  Theo Epstein, coming into his own as Bosox dealmaker, thought Beane was suspiciously over-eager to get Youklis.  He held on to him.  A current result: before last night’s game (in which he didn’t play), Youklis led the Sox in HRs with eight; he was fourth in the league in BA - .322, had a .382 mark with runners in scoring position, and a .500 BA with bases loaded.  Youk’s fielding pct. at first base was 1.000.  The one stat not quite up to par:  the “Greek god” “only” walked 20 times in 38 games.   

                                        

The Amen Corner:  “For all the talk about how dominant his stuff can be, in many ways, (Oliver) Perez remains the pitcher he has always been. Lights out one day, no lights on at home the next.  Sometimes, you watch him pitch and you envision all kinds of great things once he figures it all out.  Other times, you fear that what he is now is all he is ever going to be.” - Wallace Matthews, Newsday

 

                                                                                                             -  Boston Globe

(Posted 5/10/08)

 

Baseball can take partial credit for Barack Obama’s success so far in the Dem presidential primary contests.  It isn’t the candidate’s personal link to the game - he is known to be a White Sox fan - that’s helped him score big through the campaign season. 

Rather, it’s the coaching he’s received from two key baseball-loving advisers; the idea that the game would run for nine season-long innings and the inevitable ups and downs had to be taken in stride.  No other team in the race could match that advantage.

 

One Obama coach with a long view is campaign manager David Plouffe.  New Republic writer Noam Scheiber describes him and what he’s done this way:  “Plouffe is a fanatical baseball fan who played in an organized league into his thirties. Friends compare his pitching style to Greg Maddux, who battles late into games on the strength of his wits rather than a blazing fastball. That's been his campaign strategy, too: Where most underdog campaigns bet everything on a quick upset in Iowa or New Hampshire, Plouffe constructed a meticulous plan to turn the race into a long, drawn-out delegate slog.”

 

Obama’s other coach, campaign political consultant David Axelrod has brought the competitive drive to the contest that avid baseball fans recognize.  Manhattan-born Axelrod is a former Mets fan who, on moving to Chicago, switched his allegiance to both the Cubs and White Sox.  The Washington Post’s Robert Kaiser finds Axelrod’s baseball/political connection perfectly logical:

 

“Politics and sports are close cousins, and politics can provide an outlet for the fan's instincts. Axelrod roots for politicians with the intensity fans usually save for their teams.” 

 

More on Obama and baseball from the Nub’s e-mailbag:  “I’d compare Obama to Derek Jeter.  Like Jeter, he is a class act.” – FM, Manhattan                         

 

FM: You may have missed the first Nub item, back on April 5, 2007; along with the Jeter reference, it’s a reminder of how endless the presidential campaign has been: 

 

“If Barack Obama regains his early campaign momentum, one reason is likely to be the Derek Jeter factor.  That Barack and Jeter share similar multi-cultural backgrounds will surely seep into the broader voter consciousness as the baseball season unfolds.  The racial comparison will likely lead many even casual observers of the sport to connect Jeter’s attributes with those of Obama.  Jeter has earned the admiration of fans throughout the country and world for his skills and conduct.  Obama can benefit from a transfer of that admiration if he handles himself in the political field with the same unruffled assurance that Jeter exhibits when he steps to the plate or corrals a difficult ground ball.”    

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The good work of pitchers in various broadcast booths has been noticeable this past week.  On ESPN in Detroit Monday night, Orel Hershiser was captivated by Craig Hansen, relieving for the Red Sox.  “Wow,” said Orel, “his slider is the best I’ve ever seen!”  “But he’s not getting it over the plate,” said colleague Steve Phillips.  “What he has to do is a move a bit and get a more direct line on the batter’s box,” said Hershiser, the former Rangers pitching coach.  If Hansen makes the adjustment, some credit should go to the player they called Bulldog.

 

At Los Angeles Wednesday afternoon, SNY’s Ron Darling watched John Maine throw to just a few batters and said “I’ve never seen him better this season.”  Maine showed Darling knew what he was talking about, pitching a four-hitter into the ninth.

                                           

In the YES booth at the Stadium Thursday afternoon, David Cone was talking stats:  “When I was with the Yanks, I used to sit on the bench with Jack McDowell.  We agreed that the most important statistic for pitchers was innings.  You don’t get much of a chance to build up that number today.”

                          

At Detroit last night, Kai Igawa lasted only three innings.  That was no surprise to Yankee TV and radio announcers.  Before the game, Michael Kay and Kenny Singleton, in the YES booth, and John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman on WCBS radio, were  commenting on Igawa’s mediocre stats at Scranton-Wilkes-Barre.  At the end of the third inning, Waldman found something positive to say about Igawa: “They’ve hit him hard, but he’s only given up three runs.”  “That’s nine runs a game,” said Sterling.  The consensus: Igawa won’t be back.   Wilson Betamit shouldn’t be back at third, either, after last night’s performance..

 

 

(Posted 5/8/08)

 

The last time the Mets made the World Series - eight years ago – Mike Hampton pitched the clinching NL title game, shutting out the Cardinals.  He was asked before that game “Are you ready?”  His answer spoke volumes: “Give me the ball,” he said.

 

In that same year - 2000 - the Democrats did not grab the vote-count ball in Florida, an indecisiveness that we know would prove catastrophic to the country for close to a decade.  Unlike  Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama has resisted speaking in combative terms.  Instead, his implicit response to the readiness question in the lead-up to North Carolina and Indiana was “Watch me.”  

 

“Refusing to pander reminded his base…of the reasons they liked him in the first place.”

 

That’s how Newsweek’s Jonathan Alter summed up the effect of Obama’s opposition to a summer suspension of the gasoline tax. 

 

Being perceived by the voters as more “honest and trustworthy” than his opponent may be a deciding factor in what figures to be Obama’s eventual nomination.  But most observers agree Barack will have to convey a sense of “give-me-the-ball” confidence if he s to beat John McCain in the general election. 

 

 

The high priority voters give strong leadership qualities was evident in 2004, when polls showed their sense that Bush would be a more forceful commander-in-chief than John Kerry helped decide the election.  The New Republic’s John Judis collected more current data to make the same case:

 

“In Indiana, voters thought Clinton more qualified to be commander in chief by 54 to 43 percent. Nine percent of Obama voters acknowledged that Clinton was "more qualified to be commander in chief." In North Carolina, eleven percent of Obama voters preferred Clinton.”

 

Of course, the Clinton people say they are not giving up.  There’s talk of a possible early “October Surprise” that could change the present electoral equation.  What they may have in mind is an attack on Iran, which Team Bush is promoting – with big help from the NY Times - as an urgent need.  If it happens, the pressure will be on Obama to talk tough - defend rather than criticize yet another U.S. resort to military action abroad.                                                      

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The story at the Stadium last night in a few words:  “There’s a guy with a game face and lots of confidence on the mound.”  - David Cone on YES about Cleveland’s Cliff Lee, pitching a shutout of the Yankees. 

 

Less than six weeks into the season, five teams - two in the NL, three in the AL - are playing .600 baseball.  Arizona ( 22-12) and St.Louis (22-13) look ready to compete for division titles in the NL West and Central; ditto for Boston and the LA Angels (both 22-14) in the AL East and West.  LA shares the 22-14 record with Oakland, the one team of the five that looks problematic over the long haul.

 

Aside from the Athletics, the LA Angels may be the most noteworthy of the five teams.  The Angels, playing without two of last year’s aces - Kelvim Escobar, 18-7, and John Lackey, 19-9 - have produced two 6-0 pitching teammates,  Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana.  It’s only the eighth time that’s happened by this date since 1920.

 

Stat City:  Going into last night’s games, the Yanks had two – Derek Jeter and Bobby Abreu in the AL’s top 20 hitters with runners in scoring position.  Jeter was third, with 13 for 28, a .464 RISP average, Abreu eighth, with 13 for 32, a .406 average.  Kevin Youklis, of the Red Sox, was sixth - 12 for 27, .444 .  The Mets did not have a single player in top RSVP 20.                                                     

 

 

 (Posted 5/6/08)

 

One of the wisest of the world’s aphorisms is also waggish:  It says:  “It is best to tell the truth unless you are a good liar.”  Roger Clemens may wish he had heeded those words and pitched straight down the middle about his off-field activities.  Barry Bonds could well have a similar regret.

 

Team Bush, on the other hand, shows no sign of remorse for its lineup of lies that began with connecting Saddam Hussein to 9/11, and on down the order through the claim that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, that the U.S. does not engage in torture, etc.

Some of the lies are lies of omission; the pinch-hitters are called “misleads”, as referred to in a letter to the Defense Department from 41 House members complaining about the recently disclosed Pentagon propaganda program: "When the Department of Defense misleads the American people by having them believe that they are listening to the views of objective military analysts when in fact these individuals are simply replaying DoD talking points, the department is clearly betraying the public trust.”   The letter calls for an investigation to find the players who went to bat for the betrayal.

 

Of even more recent vintage is a lie following up on one that insisted Team Bush had no involvement - direct or indirect -in the attempted coup of Hugo Chavez six years ago.  Now, clearly because of Chavez’s growing influence in Latin America - especially among oil- and gas-producers Ecuador and Bolivia as well as Venezuela - Bush’s gas-house gang is sending its Fourth Fleet on a mission to patrol Latin American waters.  The official reason for the assignment : “new threats” – terrorism, drug-trafficking, etc.  The real reason - according to the DC-based think tank Center for Hemispheric Affairs - Team Bush wants left-leaning leaders to know it is ready to play hardball to stop the spread of unfriendly social democracies. 

                                                

The most compact swing concerning what’s at stake in the Indiana and North Carolina Dem primary contests belongs to Bloomberg.com’s Al Hunt. Here’s his analytical line drive:

“If Obama wins (today’s) contests…the Democratic nomination will be over. There are scores of so-called superdelegates waiting to embrace the Illinois senator. Victories in the two states will open the gates, even Clinton supporters acknowledge privately.  Conversely, if Senator Clinton….wins in both states, that would take the odds of an Obama nomination from near certain to merely even.

“If, as the polls, and conventional wisdom, suggest, Obama…wins North Carolina and Clinton captures Indiana, the long slog will continue.”

 

 

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The Mets are now 2-2 on their West Coast road trip after another bad Oliver Perez outing.  They can’t expect to play at a much better pace with Perez and Mike Pelfrey in the rotation.  A defining moment in Saturday’s game against Arizona came in the bottom of the second after the Mets had taken a 1-0 lead against Brandon Webb.  Pelfrey had a 2-2 count on Conor Jackson, leading off the inning.  The next pitch was strike three, except umpire Greg Gibson called it a ball.  Pelfrey’s visible frustration mounted as Jackson fouled off a couple of full-count pitches.  His body language said he was rattled enough to start imploding, which is what happened.  Pelfrey walked Jackson, setting up a two-run D-Backs inning and a lead Arizona never relinquished.  He is still not ready for prime time, and, like Perez, may never be.    

 

The Yankees will have to work to make the post-season with a rotation built around Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina and Darrell Rasner.  Their weekend sweep of Seattle would have been more impressive had the Mariners fielded a team seemingly as formidable as the one they had fighting for the wild card last September.  That overachieving M’s team could not be resurrected.  Baseball Prospectus analyst Joe Sheehan all but put Seattle’s season to rest more than a week ago:

“(Except for) Ichiro Suzuki and Kenji Johjima… there’s no upside in the lineup at all. This is a below-average offense.   The bullpen isn’t reprising its 2007 work, which was to be expected…. Adding Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva made the rotation better, but all that did was cover the ground the pen would be giving back. This was a .500 team last year, looked like a .500 team over the winter and is a .500 team now…They’re not going to be the division contender so many people expected them to be.”

 

 (Posted 5/3/08)

 

Katie Couric, Charles Gibson and Brian Williams are the pitching stars for the news teams at CBS, ABC and NBC, respectively.  They’re also big hitters, as important to their networks as Alex Rodriguez is to the Yankees and David Wright to the Mets.  Just as celebrity ballplayers like Rodriguez and Wright refrain from injecting political views into talk about their jobs, so Couric, Gibson and Williams have resisted saying anything that would betray a lack of objectivity in reporting the news.

 

That’s been the case until now for Brian Williams.  He’s become involved in the rhubarb surrounding disclosure of the Pentagon’s propaganda program.  It happened because of a blog he posts regularly.  When, after the NY Times reported that “independent” military analysts used on TV were working for the Pentagon and therefore hardly objective about Iraq, Salon’s Glenn Greenwald noted that the story had not been mentioned on major TV outlets.  Fans of Williams’ blog asked him about the situation, and he replied this way:

I read the( NYT)article with great interest. I've worked with two men since I've had this job -- both retired, heavily-decorated U.S. Army four-star Generals -- Wayne Downing and Barry McCaffrey…. All I can say is this: these two guys never gave what I considered to be the party line. They were tough, honest critics of the U.S. military effort in Iraq… these men are passionate patriots.  In my dealings with them, they were also honest brokers. . . . At no time did our analysts, on my watch or to my knowledge, attempt to push a rosy Pentagon agenda before our viewers.”

 

Williams considered the ex-generals’ harsh criticism of the occupation proof they were independent.  Yet both Downing and McCaffrey had been part of a team formed in November of 2002 that included neocons Richard Perle, Newt Gingrich and Bill Kristol.  Its name: the Committee for the Liberation of Iraq.  That connection was never disclosed on the air, nor was the fact that McCaffrey and Downing both were on the payrolls of defense-related companies.  Williams’ response can be summed up in two words: despite the evidence to the contrary – including NBC’s being part of General Electric, a defense contractor in its own right – he’s saying “Trust me.”

                         

The response here: Even less than we trust the Mets when they say Pedro is looking great and will be back soon.

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Prescient words from super-statman Bill James, based on what he calls “Sam’s Law”, and quoted here 3/28:  “ Sam's Law is that young pitchers will break your heart.  I think that when teams go into a pennant race depending on young pitching, it very often  takes a year or two for that young pitching to be as good as you thought it would be. The Yankees have that problem.”

 

Given their shaky starts, the Yanks and Mets are both fortunate to have solid stoppers in Chien Ming Wang and Johan Santana.  The precariousness of the rest of their rotations  could prove fatal to their playoff chances.  The Daily News’ Adam Rubin points out one possible consequence:  the departure of Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson.  Along with being complicit in letting Scott Kazmir go for Victor Zambrano, Peterson has never succeeded in straightening out Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey, or in putting together a reliable relief corps.  Rubin suggests that, if the Mets continue their uninspired play, someone will have to take a midseason fall, as batting coach Rick Down did a year ago.

 

Sports page wisdom – a gentle way of saying getting older: “That's just the way life is when you start to progress in your career.” –Terry Francona (on David Ortiz’s troubles)

                         

A wise relief pitcher re the Red Sox:  “You can’t let them get momentum because they run with it when they get it.”  - Toronto’s B.J. Ryan

                                             

Worth noting:  With their seventh straight victory in Colorado last night, Joe Torre’s Dodgers have moved to within four games of Arizona, who lost to the Mets.  By beating Detroit while the White Sox were losing to Toronto, the Twins have edged to within a half game of the AL Central lead.                                   

 

 

 (Posted 5/1/08)

 

The Lugo boys - Julio and Fernando – one a shortstop, the other a president-elect, have the word “poor” in common. Julio has been disappointing fans in Red Sox Nation with his poor fielding; in the third year of a four-year $36 million contract, he has been making too many errors as well as not getting on base enough.  Fernando, newly elected leader in Paraguay, worries the Bush team in Washington, because he has a rep for caring about the poor.  That’s an error by current gringo standards.  Ask Hugo Chavez in Venezuela or Evo Morales in Bolivia, who don’t hear much cheering in DC for the social democratic way they run their countries.  The Bush team would like to see them thumbed from the governmental game.

 

Fernando Lugo, a former Catholic clergyman known as the “bishop of the poor”, is considered likely to join the Chavez-Morales league that also includes the presidents of Ecuador, Uruguay, Chile and, of course, Cuba.  When Lugo was elected a month ago, Washington withheld any congratulations, preferring instead to say the U.S. would wait and see how he performed. 

 

Latino ballplayers like Julio Lugo, who was born in the Dominican Republic, have been part of a constant MLB talent flow, most of them recruited from poor families.  They comprise nearly 30 percent of big league rosters (white players constitute just under 60 pct., blacks and Asians roughly the remainder).  But now Venezuela’s Chavez is establishing a precedent that could slow the flow, a move the MLB considers anti-baseball.  Chavez is levying a 10 percent tax on teams running baseball academies in his country (see Nub of 2/29/08).  He believes Venezuela should participate in the profits those academies turn as a result of successful exploitation of their low-income recruits.

 

Exploitation?  Here is how an American sports agent, Joe Kerhoskie, described the down side of the academies on PBS:

 

"Traditionally in the Latin market, I would say players sign for about 5 to 10 cents on the dollar compared to their US counterparts…A lot of times kids just quit school at 10, 11, 12, and play baseball full-time.  It's great, it's great for the kids that make it because they become superstars and get millions of dollars in the big leagues. But for ninety-eight kids out of 100, it results in a kid that is 18, 19, with no education."

                                   -     -     -

Joe Girardi said it last season:  Oliver Perez “has a chance to be good.”

Ron Darling said it yesterday:  “To be good (Perez) has to have 15 wins, season after season.”  The question that presents itself after yesterday’s debacle:  Can a pitcher ever really be good and at the same time as erratic as Perez is?  The answer, it says here, is No.   

 

The Tampa Bay Rays have finished the month of April with an over-500 record.  Manager Joe Maddon says his maturing team has given up hoping things would get better and settled down to getting the job done:  In talking about the change in approach, Maddon even waxed philosophic:  “There’s a difference between hoping and knowing.  We have to hope in our lives to get through to the next day.  But in baseball it doesn’t really do you a whole lot of good.  You’ve got to know it.  When you do know it, then your confidence builds, and once your confidence builds and you’rer faced with that same situation again, now you know you can do it.” - quoted by Nick Cafardo, Boston Globe

                                              

Lost April:  Going into May, seven of 10 teams in the AL Central and NL West are under .500.  Three teams in potentially fatal early trouble: San Diego and Colorado, already nine games behind the first-place D-Backs, and Texas, seven-and-a-half behind the AL West-leading Angels.

 

Not again:  A scout on the Phillies (quoted by SI’s Jon Heyman): "They have incredible energy.  It's a real tribute to them that they've hung in there with Jimmy Rollins out.''

                                         - o -

(The  Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey.  Comments

to dickstar@aol.com are welcome.  Previous Nubs can be found by clicking below.)

 

 

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