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November 2009 Archive

(Posted: 11/21/09)

Will Dems and Mets be Caught in 2010 Twin-Killing?

At a non-political gathering the other night, a prominent player on the NY Congressional team talked about the outlook for the Democrats in 2010.  “It’s going to be tough,” he said, to maintain control of the House.  The event was held not far from Citi Field.  The thought occurred that ’10 could be a twin-killing year for Dems who happen to be Mets fans.

Early hot-stove stats compiled by Congressional (Pew Research) scorekeepers say 67 of 435 districts will be truly competitive next Election Day.  If the Republicans win 41 of them (minus upsets elsewhere), they will retrieve control of the House.  On the Senate side, the game-time outlook is murky; much will depend on Skipper Obama’s approval rating, which is hovering now around 50 percent.  Should O-rating remain close to that level, the Senate Dems will almost certainly see their 58-40-2 margin reduced by a few seats, but not enough to lose their majority.

The Mets, we know, are a consensus pick to finish fourth in the five-team NL East.  The addition of a Joel Piniero-type starter will not change that estimate.  Nor will adding another bat.  Jeff Wilpon is clearly in charge, and remembering his pre-Obama track record – among other things, the hiring of Art Howe, whom he called the ideal choice for manager – there is scant reason for optimism.

The donut weighing down all Democrats, of course, is the economy.  Chances of a reversal of the jobs losing streak changing the election dynamics are dim. In GOP/swing districts like NY’s Nassau County, where Dem Tom Suozzi (a former client) had won two terms as county exec, the swing back to the red team could be wide and strong. Compounding the malaise among voters is the disparity between the masses and those who appear to be entitled.  Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich writes in Salon why the stats of the disparity are so frustrating: How can the stock market hit new highs at the same time unemployment is hitting new highs? Simple. The market is up because corporate earnings are up. Corporate earnings are up because companies are cutting costs.  And the biggest single cost they’re cutting is their payrolls. So they let people go and, presto, their balance sheets look better and their stock prices rise.”
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For Congressional Dems the issue is whether they’ll retain an edge, however reduced, or lose their majority.  For the Mets, it is whether they can maintain enough marginal competitiveness to keep fans coming to Citi Field.  There is no question now of the team winning its division.  One familiar reason: lack of the type of farm system that (pre-Jeff Wilpon) produced Jose Reyes and David Wright.  Fernando Martinez, until recently the system’s lone standout prospect, has lost his luster:  Marty Noble, of mlb.com, reminds us of why:
“(Martinez) is merely 21, but the injuries that have interrupted his development and his unremarkable performance in his first big league tour have raised questions... Right now, Martinez is closer to becoming another Alex Escobar than an Alex Rodriguez.”

How badly do the Red Sox want Jason Bay to re-sign with them?  Badly enough to badmouth him as soon as he opted for free agency.  The team’s message amplified through the media:  No NL team should want Bay; he lacks range as a left fielder and can be most effective used alternately as a DH.  Furthermore, he is “not someone you can build a team around.”  Who knew?

                            - o -
(The  Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey.  Comments
to dickstar@aol.com are welcome, as are subscription requests. 
Previous Nubs can be found by scrolling below.)

The Nub will be on a road trip for the next week, returning a week from Tuesday.  Happy Thanksgiving to all.

 


(Posted: 11/17/09)

Skipper Obama’s Problem With Tough Pitches

“I almost wish Bush were still president,” said a front-office team member. “Then I could still be hopeful.   Now the political problems seem as immutable as the Yankees’ advantages in baseball.”

 The sentiment is a familiar one to people watching along the left-field line.  Skipper Obama can make great statements, but he ducks away from tough pitches instead of taking his cuts.  Those pitches, thrown by right-handers, are promoted by the corporate media and therefore popular with the public.  Let’s run down the consistently baffling assortment:

The high, hard one: Wars are something Team USA must wage.  It’s a dirty job - in Afghanistan, Iraq, and maybe Iran – but if we don’t fight, we’ll be perceived as giving in to terrorism and undercut our stance as the world’s clean-up hitter.

The keep-away pitch: Defense - that is, war- spending must never be questioned.  Deficit ballhawks can warn about the perils of aggressive social investment, but complaints about huge arms deals should be confined to the clubhouse.

Bread and butter delivery: Big-bank privileges and Wall Street prosperity are what market democracy is all about.  Going to bat for a less-tilted way to keep the economy in play risks ejection from the game. 

Brush-back:  Progressive taxation as a possible remedy for much of our financial losing streak is a non-starter.  Mere mention of the t-word can get a major player sent to the political minors.

Rules-breaking spitball:  In the name of “safety and security,” some right-handers say that, unlike several countries around the world, we dare not allow terrorist trials in the U.S.  Salon slugger Glenn Greenwald exposes the “cowardice” of pitchers who take that approach: “(They)insist,,,that we must ignore the Constitution in order to stay alive:  the exact antithesis of the core value on which the nation was founded…It is...as pure a surrender to the terrorists as it gets.” 

We know the Yankees will never have to surrender their financial edge; the players union  won’t accept any management proposal that would cut into members’ earnings.  And would it be fair to blame them for that?

It would not be a radical change, but Brewers GM Bob Melvin thinks the way to mitigate the disparity between the “have” and “have-not” teams could be through the player draft:  “The draft has to be fixed,” he says, so that teams willing to spend the most money don’t  wind up with the best players.  Which is what happens because small-market teams seldom bother drafting the best, who are in a position to demand - and receive - top dollar.  Melvin and his management colleagues believe - hope - some kind of curbs on signing payments can be established in the next labor agreement in 2012.      
                           
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Desert stars:  The Nationals, Marlins and Oakland A’s are three teams surely watching the Arizona Fall League with satisfaction.  As of yesterday’s stats, the Nats’ high-priced first draft pick Stephen Strasburg led the league in wins (4-1) and had struck out 23 in 19 innings.  Marlins’ outfielder prospect Bryan Petersen leads the league in hitting (.422) and Oakland’s slugging outfield farmhand Grant Desme has hit 11 home runs in 24 games; no one else in the league is close to double-digit HRs. 

The Yanks have a promising hitter in outfielder Colin Curtis, batting .388 after 17 games.  Mets first-baseman prospect Ike Davis had a .319 BA with four home runs after 17 games.  The Red Sox must be pleased with the progress of shortstop Jose Iglesias, the Cuban defector to whom they gave a $6 million signing bonus not long ago.  Defense is Iglesias’ forte, but he was batting .295 after 16 games.
                                 - o -
(The  Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey.  Comments
to dickstar@aol.com are welcome, as are subscription requests. 
Previous Nubs can be found by scrolling below.)

 



(Posted: 11/14/09)

The Unpredictable Pastimes – Politics and Baseball

Non-Yankee baseball fans can find solace in the nine-year gap between Bronx-Bomber championships.  Big money doesn’t always buy World Series titles; unpredictability is an important part of baseball’s appeal.

Politics, we know, is even more volatile than our national pastime - look at what happened in the recent election: despite a popular president, Team GOP, playing in a bad economy, won two major contests and a passel of minor ones.  At the same time, little-noticed scoreboards in two states showed how unpredictable the political game can be.  In Maine and Washington, amid household-budget losing streaks, voters defeated efforts to limit the amount of tax money their states could ask of them.  The margin was 60-40 in Maine, 57-43 in Washington.  Talk about “you never know”, many anti-tax-limit voters in Maine showed they could pull to right by also defeating a gay-marriage proposal.

Washington Post-man E.J. Dionne noted that the anti-tax attempt was “part of a laboratory experiment pushed by the Beltway Right.”  The outcome therefore was something progressives could point to and possibly build on.  He adds, though, that leadership is needed, which raises a familiar question: Will President Obama and his party take the lesson and go on offense against the simple-minded anti-government screeds now getting so much play?”

Experienced official scorers are calling Team Obama’s swinging bunt concerning its Afghan ambassador a hit; that is, the handout (disguised as a leak) describing the envoy’s doubts about a troop buildup advances the running story cleanly and provides protection for the skipper.  Fans will not now be shocked when Barack pulls back from giving General Stanley McChrystal the large number of additional armed players he requested.  Or if the “leak” does produce an outcry, Team Obama can change its strategy accordingly.    

The cheer expressed here for ratings-beleaguered CNN had scarcely subsided when the cable network’s Wolf Blitzer made the support a source of embarrassment.  Here is how Blitzer asked Nidal Hasan’s military lawyer – Ret.Col John Galligan – about his taking the case involving the Fort Hood massacre:

BLITZER: “A lot of folks, when they heard I was interviewing you, they asked me how could a retired U.S. military officer, a full colonel, go ahead and represent someone accused of mass murder? And I want you to explain to our viewers why you're doing this.”

GALLIGAN: “Wolf, I will tell you what I have told consistently anyone who asks that same question, and that is…I fully appreciate the importance of ensuring that everybody has a fair trial.” 

He might have added “And you should, too, Wolf.” 

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Although nothing happened at mlb’s post-season meeting in Chicago, Mets fans rest assured their team will make at least one big-ticket signing before too long.  Jeff Wilpon and Omar Minaya must do something to distract from the suddenly non-competitive state of the franchise.  Marty Noble, who covered the Mets for years with Newsday and now does it for MLB.com, tells it like it is:

“My sense of the situation it is that the final standings in the National League East accurately represent the relative strengths of the 2009 teams and are likely to serve the purpose for the 2010 season -- even if the Mets acquire a quality starting pitcher. Adding a power hitter who plays the outfield well… and a quality starter would close the gap.

“But the catching situation is an enormous issue that seemingly has been camouflaged by the need for pitching and power.”

Time to talk about the marginal-interest sports of baseball fans, specifically today, pro football.  Our recommended focus each year is on frost-belt football played outdoors in December and particularly in the January playoffs. (So much fun to watch from a warm living room.) We therefore hope the Eagles or Giants overtake Dallas in the NFC East, and will root for either in upcoming games.  And we want the Patriots and the (barely contending) Jets to maintain their respective leads over Miami in the AFC East.  We’d like to see the Broncos fend off the charging San Diegoans.  And in the AFC North, where the Bengals, Steelers and Ravens are fighting it out, may the best team win.   
                       - o -
(The  Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey.  Comments
to dickstar@aol.com are welcome, as are subscription requests. 
Previous Nubs can be found by scrolling below.)

 


(Posted: 11/10/09)

Is It Good to Have the Yanks and Team Obama Playing Their Game?

Last swings (for now) on a thoroughly scuffed subject:

What does it mean that the Yankees can outbid any other team for ballplayers they want?  There’s a politically correct answer, we believe, that connects to the way Team Obama plays its game.

“You can't root for the Yankees regretting their spending of money,” says JM, of Nyack, in the e-mailbag. “There is a long arc from Babe Ruth to Johnny Mize to Catfish Hunter down to the present day.  It's never the spending, but only the spending for trash that burdens our souls.”

Then there is this from GM, of Princeton, NJ:  “What folks forget is that most owners are rich.  It's the fan base that allows the Yankees to spend and know that they are going to recoup their money.”

To sum up the above: The Yankees are fortunate to have a huge fan base – it’s the good hand they were dealt.  That they spend freely the massive amounts of money they take in is something they’ve always done, which we should learn to live with. 

Implied is “Life is unfair”, a fact wealthy teams like the Yanks can take in stride.  But not everyone.  Most fans would like to see something approaching an even playing field.  Much of the third world resents Team Obama because, like the Yanks, it can afford to do whatever it wants.  What nearly everybody abroad and at home seeks is fairness.  Americans resent the O-team’s “soft-touch approach to Wall Street” (Paul Krugman’s phrase) which has enriched a few players while most others struggle.  People in the Middle East deplore the skipper’s check-swing toward the expansion of Israeli settlements in Palestine; in Latin America, they’re booing Obama’s inaction over the  rhubarb in Honduras.    

The reluctance of Obama to push for change, to seek a righting of imbalances, has (again in Krugman’s phrase) “seemed to many like a betrayal of their ideals.”  The ideal of greater fairness in baseball is more elusive than in politics because the head man Bud Selig is in even a bigger slump than Obama.  No change is imminent.  Kansas City Star columnist Joe Posnanski, frustrated as anyone, explains why:

A. Everyone knows the Yankees spend much more money than any other team to win games.
B.  Because everyone knows it, people have been complaining about it for many years.
C.  Because people have complained about it for many years, everybody is sick of hearing about it.
D.  Because everyone is sick of hearing about it, nobody really listens.
E.  Because nobody really listens, people don’t talk about the Yankees spending much more money than any other team to win games….

“The Yankees have a pat hand…(Nevertheless) many of us keep (watching) because we love baseball and there’s enough randomness in the game itself and enough volatility in the playoffs to distract us from the lunacy of having the game so ridiculously tilted toward one team.”

A modest proposal for ending the lunacy - split the Yankees into two teams, the way you split an overvalued stock: creation of, let’s say, the NY Clippers would help the AL establish 16-team balance with the NL and again make NYC the three-team town it was before the Dodgers and Giants abandoned it. (No charge for the consultation.)
                          - o -
(The  Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey.  Comments
to dickstar@aol.com are welcome, as are subscription requests. 
Previous Nubs can be found by scrolling below.)

 



(Posted: 11/7/09)

Did Loser to Team Mike Care as Much as the Phillies?

In an election-week verbal pepper game, a friend hit out at the Bloomberg/Yankees connection made in the previous Nub.  He said he hoped, that in relating wealthy Team Bloomberg to the Yanks, we weren’t implying Billy Thompson was like the Phillies: “Unlike the Phillies,” he said, “Thompson didn’t want it badly enough.”

Thompson, a zero on the personal scoreboard of most New Yorkers, surely wanted to win badly, but he didn’t have the financial clout to do so; he couldn’t transform himself through TV and other paid media into someone for whom the public could cheer.  Bloomberg was a zero when he first ran in 2001.  His money made him a visible player, and a winning one.

The danger now, we know, is that another moneyed candidate could come along in 2013 and replicate Mayor Mike’s success.  Then, once in office, he might demonstrate to the public what son-of-money Jeff Wilpon has shown Mets fans: he doesn’t have what it takes to run the franchise.  The fans can stay away from baseball games; the public must stick it out for four years with a bad mayor. 

Bloomberg will be a good mayor, as Thompson might well have been had Team Obama saw fit to go to bat for him.  Obama has been letting his fans down on a number of plays – as he and we have been hearing for some time.  Washington Postman E.J. Dionne takes a warning post-election hack at the skipper and his coaches.  He sees a spirit far different than the buoyant confidence Barack Obama inspired a year ago.  And the Obama change-agents, particularly the young, were notably absent from the voting booths this week.  In Virginia, a state Obama carried comfortably last year, a majority of those who showed up to vote on Tuesday said they had backed John McCain. This much more Republican electorate produced a GOP landslide all the way down the Virginia ballot.

“That is the fact from this week that Democrats would be fools to ignore. It's not a resurgent right wing that should trouble Obama's party.  Indeed, the stronger the right's role in shaping the Republican message, the harder it will be for middle-of-the-road voters to use the Republicans to express their discontent.  But for the moment, the thrill is gone from politics, and that is very dangerous for the mainstream progressive movement that Obama promised to build.”
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The on-the-job training of Jeff Wilpon as in-loco-parentis boss of the Mets began six years ago. Shortly before then, former co-owner Nelson Doubleday told the Newark Star-Ledger he saw trouble brewing for the team: “Mr. Jeff Wilpon has decided that he’s going to learn how to run a baseball team and take over at the end of the year… Run for the hills, boys.  I think…baseball people will bail… Jeff sits there by himself like he’s King Tut waiting for his camel.”

In fact, Jeff brought in baseball people – Bill Singer and Al Goldis – to serve as special assistants to new GM Jim Duquette.  That too-many-cooks experiment ended badly – all three were gone in short order, with Omar Minaya taking over as GM at the end of 2004.  Now Jeff is talking about a repeat of the debacle, assistants for Omar, who has lost the player-moves autonomy promised when he took the job. 

How do fans outside Yankee-land feel about the Bombers’ WS victory?  Cincinnati Enquirer columnist Paul Daugherty gives us an idea:

“The Yankees have missed the postseason exactly once since 1993.  Apparently, their front office has been nothing but wise since then.  I'm sure Carl Pavano thinks they're brilliant.

“Care about the Cincinnati Reds or don't.  Fact is, if you follow the sport -- and are somewhere in the vast part of America that doesn't care about the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets -- you need to be concerned about a competitive imbalance that allows one team to spend $200 million on players and another in the same business to spend $40 million.”

More, pro and con, about the political correctness of “imbalance” in the next Nub.
                 
 - o -
(The  Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey.  Comments
to dickstar@aol.com are welcome, as are subscription requests. 
Previous Nubs can be found by scrolling below.)

 


(11/5/09)

Did Wealth Make Yanks and Team Mike Failure-Proof?

Is it fair to say the Yankees, like Mike Bloomberg, were “too big to fail”?  The answer has to be “yes,” but with a safety-squeeze qualification: Had either the Yanks or Team Mike tripped over their moneyed advantage; had internal rivalries or jealousies developed among well-paid teammates, or had outside events - serious accidents, injuries illnesses or political corruption - intervened, then bigness could not have spared them failure.

Both succeeded - the Yanks to a world championship, Bloomberg to a third mayoral term  - because they put their money to effective use: the Yankees spent multi-millions extra to outbid opponents for C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira.  Team Mike used the $100 million-plus self-financed campaign to shift the public’s focus from the mayor’s devious term-limits play to his two-term record of on-field performance.  Few, if any bumps slowed either franchise. 

Polls and media consensus suggest that for both outfits fan support was ambivalent: voters resented Bloomberg’s “Who’s-your-daddy?” rule while approving the way he ran the city. The many dispassionate Yankee rooters regretted the team’s willingness to spend to make the competitive field as uneven in its favor as it felt was necessary to win. 

The election results only underscore the price Mayor Mike will pay for his win: an erosion of the good will New Yorkers felt for him because of what they considered his trustworthiness.  He now deserves little more trust than most politicians.  And the skepticism is likely to show in the way the once-supportive media treat him. (“No Longer Invincible,” was the 11/4 Times’ quick-pitch headline about the mayor ) Yankee-hating, which had subsided throughout much of baseball since the team’s last World Series appearance in 2003, will now surely regain widespread fervor. 

The New Yorker’s Hendrik Hertzberg sums up what the public and “daddy” Bloomberg have let themselves in for over the next four years:  We gave him a third term “sullenly,” he says, “knowing that while it probably won’t measure up to his first two…it’ll probably be good enough…But then what?  Will we have forgotten how to govern ourselves?” file:///C:/Users/dickstar/Downloads/Documents/PerfectPitch%20blog/the_nub.html     

The UK Guardian’s Michael Tomasky picks up on Hertzberg’s idea, seeing Bloomberg’s  victory more as a grudging coronation than re-election: New York City, once the greatest city of the 20th century, will carry on for the foreseeable future being the greatest city of the 15th.”

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Auld Lang Syne:  One hates to see the season end.  But the finale had a lot going for it, especially if you were Yankee fan.  SI’s Tom Verducci put it this way:
“In Game 6 we (got) the next best thing to a Game 7, in every way. Pedro pitching against the Yankees for the 40th time. Pettitte pitching in a postseason game for the 40th time. The World Series decided…at Yankee Stadium (old and new) for the 17th time.  It's like a great bedtime story to a child.  Tell me again, because it never gets old.”

It was a heartbreaking bedtime story for Phillies fans, who got a taste of what Mets fans went through when Pedro pitched for their team.  Tim McCarver said at the start that Pedro had no fast ball.  And just before Hideki Matsui knocked in his third and fourth runs, Joe Buck said “Pedro’s not fooling Matsui.”

Shortly before game 6 started, Fox promoted two sitcoms, promising they would be on tonight.  Not a word about the possibility of a seventh game.

Now the hot-stove guessing game can begin:  Will or won’t the Yanks re-sign Matsui?  After Hideki’s clutch WS performance, there’s no question how most Yankee fans feel.               

                          - o -
(The  Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey.  Comments
to dickstar@aol.com are welcome, as are subscription requests. 
Previous Nubs can be found by scrolling below.)

 


(Posted: 11/3/09)

Ballparks as Bloomberg-Aided Business Centers

Stadium designers know that new ballparks must be bigger than the old to accommodate neither a larger playing field nor greater seating capacity.  What teams want in their new digs is a swath of additional commercial space.  That the restaurants, clothing stores, souvenir shops, etc. are built-in threats to local businesses is too bad: baseball has an anti-communitarian streak evident in many new-ballpark cities, but especially in New York.

We know that the Yankees, abetted by Team Bloomberg, have received $360 million in tax relief and subsidies as well as chunks of precious parkland for their new stadium.  The Mets completed a lesser deal with city but have also made out quite well on the taxpayers’ cuff.   All this should be taken into account as NYC voters go to the polls today.

The Voice’s Tom Robbins and Wayne Barrett, the Times’s Jim Dwyer and the Daily News’ Juan Gonzales and Errol Louis are among the few journalists who have kept the mayor’s record in perspective.  Time constraints have made TV news people less conscientious.  Lingering in the TV ballpark, our pitching for CNN last time prompted a couple of differing e-mailbag at-bats:

“You are certainly right about the need for an old fashioned, which is to say, relatively objective news source, but CNN has not been that for years.” - Carol Ann Rinzler, Manhattan

“That was a good piece about CNN neutrality.” - Richard Bruner, Budapest

In truth, we based much of our CNN assessment on its foreign coverage, which may explain the disparity of opinion.

Down-the-middle hitting machine Ronald Brownstein (National Journal) summarizes in two crisp swings the major-party strategies as the political game heads into 2010:

Democrats are wagering that they can sell Americans on a sweeping and in some ways unprecedented expansion of government's reach to confront both…immediate …and… long-term challenges.”

“The fundamental bet that Republicans are placing this year (is) that they can regain power by riding a public backlash against government overreach.”

Two early tests today of how the strategy is working: In gov elections in New Jersey and Virginia, polls indicate a tie - Dem Jon Corzine winning in NJ, Repub Bob McDonnell in Virginia.  Both franchises are sure to declare overall victory.  Margins may be the key to which spin makes more sense. 
                                
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It’s Not Over Yet, But…In retrospect, Charlie Manuel tipped us off to his starting-pitcher problems and the disadvantage under which the Phils were playing.  His choice of Pedro Martinez to pitch the second WS game said clearly he had lost confidence in Cole Hamels.  Having no starter with “lights-out” potential after Cliff Lee meant the Phils were overmatched against C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte.  The team could hit a ton, but so could the Yanks.  Victory for the NYYs was - is - therefore predictable.  But we’re not saying it here; at least, not this time. 

Mariano Rivera was generous in imparting his cut-fastball “one pitch” secret the other day.  The Boston Herald’s Sean McAdam took down what he said:  “I started throwing the cutter in 1997 and since then, it has been one pitch, yes.  But it does a lot of things.  It doesn’t go in the same direction always, and it’s not always in the same spot.

“Before, I used to just try to go inside, inside, inside and occasionally I went outside.  Now I use the whole plate. I use the outside corner, the inside corner and up and down. When you make those adjustments, the hitters will tell you if you have to make any (further) adjustments… But that’s what I’ve done, I’m using the whole plate.”

Not exactly news, perhaps.  But when a great one talks about his craft, he or she is worth quoting.

                                - o -
(The  Nub is a team effort skippered by Dick Starkey.  Comments
to dickstar@aol.com are welcome, as are subscription requests. 
Previous Nubs can be found by scrolling below.)

 



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