The Nub
October 2008 Archive
(Posted 10/28/08)
Charlie Cook is the Baseball Prospectus of elections; he is the widely acknowledged bias-free political expert. “The Cook Political Report” is a bible of the presidential contest; he uses baseball metaphors, beginning with the headline “OBAMA SWINGING FOR THE FENCES”, to forecast what the electoral scoreboard will show a week from today:
“For a political
analyst, the normal posture
this time of year is much like a baseball umpire's: hunched over,
peering
carefully as the ball approaches the plate, watching for whether it
breaks left
or right, whether it's coming in high or low. But, these days, we
analysts are
more like outfielders, watching in awe as a ball seems on a trajectory
to not
only clear the fence but very likely land in the upper deck.
“By
every metric, Barack
Obama's presidential campaign appears headed for the upper deck. Polls (both national and state-by-state),
organization, money, and momentum are all running strongly in Obama's
favor…(There is) one unmistakable fact: This
is a toxic political environment for Republicans. That's
why they will probably lose at least
seven seats in the Senate and at least 20 in the House.”
- -
-
However the election turns out, NYC residents’ belief in
popular democracy has endured two hits within a few weeks.
First, the bailout of banks and businesses
erased any illusion that the financial crisis would lead to creation of
New
Deal-like social democratic programs.
Then the City Council passed anti-democratic legislation
overriding the
twice-expressed will of the people on term limits.
One of the heroes of the defiant 29-22 vote
was Queens Councilmember Tony Avella who, soon after the roll call,
swung hard
at his go-along-with-the-mayor teammates:
“You're not conning
anybody. The public of this city knows the fix was
in from the beginning. And you know something? When the time comes,
hopefully -
and I apologize to my colleagues - but you should all be voted out of
office."
-
-
-
It looked to be baseball’s biggest TV-dictated travesty, a
game that should not have been started, and, if so, suspended by the
second
inning. But game five of the World
Series unfolded under a downpour that gave a drenched feeling even to
those
watching indoors, far from
The Rays are still alive, thanks to overdue timely
hitting by
Carlos Pena and the wet-surface-defying speed of B.J. Upton. The budding ace the Mets traded away deserves
credit, too. Scott Kazmir was squeezed
egregiously
by home plate umpire Jeff Kellogg at key moments and yet managed to
hold the
Phillies to two runs. Joe Buck and Tim
McCarver remarked what was evident to TV viewers - that the umpiring
has been
bad throughout the Series. Adding to the
Series’ misfortunes, more rain is forecast for tonight’s resumption.
(Posted: 10/25/08)
Why
Rays' Manager Didn't Join Players at Obama Rally
Why didn’t Rays manager Joe Maddon appear with the
six
The more significant story is that of
the
Climaxing a season in which the
percentage of
African-American players reached a post-1990 MLB low of 8.2 percent,
the current
Series offers hope that young blacks can be lured back to baseball. The match-up boasts an impressive array of
African-American stars. In addition to
the four pro-Obama Rays, there is
When they see “those faces on TV,” says
David Price, it will
give “young African-Americans…something to shoot for.”
- -
-
Many British observers believe the election of Obama is
something for the American people to shoot for.
It’s not a question of policies or ideology, says the New
Statesman’s
Alec MacGinnis: “Barack
Obama (i)s running not on a record of past achievement or
on a concrete program for the future,
but instead on the simple promise of thoughtfulness
- the notion that the
leadership of the country should be entrusted not on the basis of
résumé and
platform, but on the prospect of applying to the nation's problems one
man's
singularly well-tempered intelligence.”
The NYC Pols All-Sellout Team: Mike Bloomberg, GM; Christine Quinn, manager; Alan Gerson and David Yassky, switch-hitters; Olly Koppell, leader of the 29-player clubhouse cabal.
Fox’s pre-game segment Thursday night - baseball’s hailing its own patriotic role in helping the country through trying times – was saccharine as well as embarrassing. The embarrassment was for Obama and John McCain for allowing themselves to be drafted into participating in such bad taste.
The teeth-gritting, time-filling stuff
that is aired between
8 and the game’s start (usually well after 8:30) compounds the
unacceptability
of the action dragging on to midnight-ish in
the east.
The decisions that are causing widespread fan discomfort surely
have
contributed to the heretical feeling expressed in this LA Times item: "The World Series feels like the end of a long line in a
buffet,"
said Paul Swangard, managing director of the Warsaw Sports Marketing
Center at
the University of Oregon. "By the time you get there, you've just about
had your fill."
(Posted 10/21/08)
McCain, Baseball Owners in Synch on 'Spreading the Wealth'
John McCain’s disdain for “spreading the wealth around” surely doesn’t surprise attentive baseball fans. They’ve heard owners of wealthy teams resist the idea of revenue-sharing with their less-well-heeled brethren for decades. As with Team McCain, the owners’ solution to the problem of growing income disparity is through use of taxes. Where McCain pitches for tax cuts for the wealthy as a way of juicing a trickle-down economy, the owners got to bat for a luxury tax to be slapped on high-spending teams, like the Yankees.
McCain calls Barack Obama’s proposed imposition of a new tax on upper-bracket people “socialism.” Obama says the only socialism he sees is in Team Bush’s bailout of banks and other businesses. Obama’s talk about taxes - who will score and who will get picked off - and not about making the economic playing field more level suggests the cautious stance he feels he must take. To speak of ordering his possibly successful team to be hard-hitting dispensers of services and assistance would be to utter what is still a dirty word to a bench full of swing voters – not socialism, but a word beginning with “g” and ending in “t.” Obama might do well to quote Bill Clinton’s Republican Defense Secretary (and former Maine Senator) William Cohen on the subject. Long before Katrina, Cohen reminded skeptics: “Government is your enemy until you need a friend.”
Support for a spreading-the-wealth
government came the other
day from an unlikely dugout: the centrist (at best)
“What, exactly, is so awful about ‘spreading the wealth’?
“Govefile:///C:/Users/dickstar/Downloads/Documents/PerfectPitch%20blog/the_nub.htmlrfile:///C:/Users/dickstar/Downloads/Documents/PerfectPitch%20blog/the_nub.htmlnment performs certain essential functions, from education to national defense. It must raise money to do that. Charging everybody the same tax rate might sound simple. But it would actually impose a much harsher burden on the poor, since they end up spending much--if not all--of their incomes on the basic necessities of life, such as food, clothing, and shelter. As one famous 18th century philosopher argued,
‘It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expen[s]e, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.’…
“If you
don’t recognize the quotes--or haven’t guessed by now--the 18th Century
philosopher is none other than Adam Smith.
Or is he a socialist, too?”
-
-
-
No sour grapes in
“The Red Sox were beaten by a better team. The Rays never played .500 ball before this year, but in October of '08 they are every bit as talented as any Yankees team the Sox battled in the last decade. Tampa beat the Red Sox 10 times in 18 tries during the regular season, finished two games ahead of Boston, and took out the Franconamen in a worthy seventh game.” (Shaughnessy)
“They won it with talent. The lineup written out by (Joe) Maddon included four Number 1 draft picks. That included winning pitcher (Matt) Garza, a former Twins numero uno who shocked no one in the baseball community by overmatching the Red Sox in the biggest game he’s ever pitched.” (Ryan)
(Posted 10/18/08)
The other night, as the Phillies were wrapping up the NL pennant, Fox play-by-play man Joe Buck told of teammates calling Shane Victorino “Jose” because he waved exultantly after hitting a game-tying homer in game three. The “Jose” was for the Mets’ Jose Reyes, whose arm-waving habit while rounding the bases is considered bush-league by members of opposing teams. “Victorino got the message,” Buck said.
Sensitivity to how others see our
nation’s behavior is about
as common to Americans as it is to Mets fans concerning Reyes’ antics. We don’t get the message, seeing things only
as our government and our media - too often teammates - tell us what to
see. Thus
But the Russian side of the rhubarb is
as worthy of
attention as is the other side of the Reyes ruckus.
The Russians once had a league of their
own in
Medvedev found a supportive fellow
team head in Nicolas Sarkozy. The French
president said the separate leagues should come together. Sarkozy’s plan, according to the International
Herald Tribune’s William Pfaff, is to beef up security “from
Vladivostak to
(Posted
10/14/08) Owing to yesterday’s semi-holiday, we are calling on a pinch-hitter -
“On a
shirtsleeves day in front of a crowd that police estimated at 10,000 within
(Vernon) park and another 5,000 who couldn't wedge their way in, Obama began his
speech by asking, ‘Are there any Phillies fans around here?’…He did tell the
crowd that he is really a "’But
since the White Sox lost, I'll go ahead and root for the Phillies now,’ Obama
said. “Cynics
might note that “As a
public service to the undecided voters, I proposed to the candidate a series of
lightning-round questions that could be used to litmus his integrity and
dependability. It's one thing to get his position on foreign oil. It might be more revealing to know what
he thinks of the designated hitter. “Here
they are - the questions that had to be asked: “Best sports movie ever? ”Hoosiers.” “Is a walk as good as a hit? "’Yes.’ “The DH? " ‘I'm
not really into it.’ “Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame? "’No, because he bet on baseball.
If he had bet on football, I wouldn't care. But you don't bet on your own
game.’ ”Wilt or Russell? "’Russell.
I've got to say that, and it's part of the lesson I learned. When I was a kid, I
loved Wilt. That was my guy. As I get older, maybe because my game's more like
Russell's - I can't score 100 points - I have come to appreciate Russell more.’
“You also play tennis well. Federer or Nadal? "’Federer.
Smooth guy.’ “Does a good defense always beat a good offense? "’Sometimes
a good offense can beat a good defense, but I'll put my money on a good defense
every time. You've got to have both, though. Maybe it's because I'm thinking
about my Bears…’” - - - Oft-insightful Orel Hersheiser the other night on ESPN Radio from LA: (1) “Longtime observers say the playoffs become compelling when either team wins on the road. Until then, the games are just ordinarily interesting.” (2) “A pitcher fighting fatigue can sometimes still throw a good fastball. It’s when you see a hump on his slider that you know he’s tired.” With two of
three victories turned in by road teams, the Red Sox-Rays series gets
(Posted
10/11/08) Who could blame Yankee fans for hearing “God Bless It began, minutes into the contest, with a pitch for the superiority of our labor force. “American workers are the best in the world,” said McCain. “They’re the most innovative. They’re the best.” Then Obama, sounding almost like a stadium announcer, hailed the American
military: “Our
troops…have performed heroically and honorably and we owe them an
extraordinary debt of
gratitude. “
McCain went to bat for “Americans work(ing) together” to solve problems. And he may have thought this “we’re-number-one” hit would score the game’s final patriotic run: “ But it was only the debate’s seventh inning, and Obama had another
superlative idea: “Senator McCain and I do agree,” he said, “this is the greatest nation
on earth. We are a force of good in
the world.”
What country could the candidates have been blustering about? It sounded suspiciously like what author Gore Vidal called “The United States of Amnesia.” The scorecard of our disastrous errors - the preemptive war, shock and awe, tens of thousands of Iraqi and thousands of Afghani civilians killed, Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, rendition, legalized torture, etc. - received little attention.
But along with the chauvinistic batting practice,
one of the candidates was in a position to field some hard-to-handle
truths. While skipping over the
shameful details, he did cite the
harm done to Team USA by skipper George W’s dismal managerial record:
“ The strains that have been placed on our alliances…and the respect
that's been diminished over the last eight years,” he said, “has constrained us…because we don't have the
resources or the allies to do everything that we should be
doing.” His effective, if understated,
performance suggests – it says here – that he has the skills to play a pre-Bush,
back-to-basics game. And, while he’s at it, perhaps to encourage a long-overdue
end to seventh-inning flag-waving.
This week’s New Yorker magazine seconds the
idea. The coming election, its
editors assert, “could…say something encouraging, even exhilarating,
about the country, about its dedication to tolerance and inclusiveness, about
its fidelity, after all, to the values it proclaims in its
textbooks.” That result, says the magazine, would
signal the emergence of a “leader…attuned to the complexities
of our troubled globe. The leader’s
name is Barack Obama.”
- - - Before Dice-K showed what a great investment he was, Baseball
Prospectus’s Christina Kahrl offered this hedged prediction on how the Red
Sox-Rays series would play out: “ I can see the Rays taking a
quick 2-0 lead at home, a Red Sox win in Game 3, (Andy) Sonnanstine surprising
people in Game 4, a Red Sox homestand-closing win in Game 4, and then the Rays
winning the series in six, because if they don't, it'll be the Red Sox in
seven.” No matter how complicated predictions can be, the rule is simple: when
the baseball playoffs reach the final four, the team with the most ex-Mets
loses. That’s just the way it is,
the way it’s been most of the time.
Sorry about that, 1-0 Red Sox have a big edge in the ALCS – no Shea refugees to clutter
dugout and box scores. The 2-0
Phillies are similarly blessed in their match-up with the Dodgers, who are
handicapped by the bench-presence of ex-Met Jeff Another rule, a new political one (formulated by Bill
Maher): “A candidate for president should not be judged by the
color of his skin. And to anyone who thinks differently, I say, please do not
reject John McCain just because he's white. I think the recent news from Wall
Street has made us all less tolerant, and only reinforced the stereotype that
white people are shiftless, thieving welfare queens…
“What you have to
understand is that (profiteering) whites are a product of a society that made
them that way. It was the
neighborhoods and the schools they went to: Harvard, Yale, the
(Posted
10/9/08) Longtime Mets fans will remember the sad sight in the 1973 World Series
when Willie Mays, playing center field against “I hate to see a hero fail. There are so few of them.” Those words from Bernard Malamud’s “The Natural” should serve as caveat to NYC’s Mike Bloomberg, who risks becoming the Willie Mays of mayoral politics. Let’s check the record book on sweet-swinging Mike. He upset Mark Green in 2001 with an off-field strategy, appealing to fans through an endless series of self-financed highlight reels on TV. Though embodying a dangerous anti-populist NYC precedent - wealth outscoring political experience - Mike won over many of the skeptics by hitting through the middle most of the time. He played the game straight, yet wasn’t afraid of taking chances, hurting feelings. He pushed through a property-tax hit on the middle class, a move that showed he thought a manager’s job was to do the right, not the popular thing. Mike wasn’t perfect; he let coach Danny Doctoroff lead him into participating in a botched squeeze play: the idea that a new West Side Stadium could attract the 2012 Summer Olympic Games to NYC. And the mayor has been complicit in driving home the publicly subsidized stadium projects, new pricey digs for the Yankees and Mets. But he has built strong ties with the city’s minority communities and, in general, won the trust of most New Yorkers. Until now. In pitching for legislation that would override the will of his fans and expand term limits, Mike not only hurts his own integrity; he confirms the fears of those who said electing a man rich enough to buy his way into office would end badly. Compounding Mike’s crucial error is the spreading undemocratic taint associated with him to most of the go-along 51 council members and several other city office-holders. His third term is likely to be a letdown, as are the last years of almost all once-great ballplayers. And just as the pathos of Willie’s World Series stumble is part of the Mays memory-bank mosaic, so the glitter of Mike’s legacy will be tarnished by the image of the fast one he’s throwing at us now. - - - Playoff thoughts while dealing with a couple of days without baseball: Mark Kotsay, Sean Casey – two insufficiently recognized illustrations of why the Red Sox went farther into the fall than the Yanks this year. Theo Epstein made sure Tito Francona had a bench full of professional replacements . The Yankees, with their Wilson Betemits and Cody Ransoms, couldn’t match the Sox in that department. The Mets’ mediocre bench was the least of their many problems. The top three: 1) the bullpen; 2) the bullpen; 3) the bullpen. Newsday’s onetime crack baseball writer Marty Noble pins the bullpen, lack of foresight and bad signings, generally, at the door of Omar Minaya. In addition, writing for MLB.com, he gives this overall perspective on the 2008 Mets: “This
year, the Mets lost the pennant race; last year, they lost the pennant. It was theirs, and they collapsed. This
year, they had a lead and didn't perform well thereafter. .. I'm not sure
(Willie) “At
no time did I think the Mets were a championship team, but the National League
East was hardly a dynamic division.
I can't say I expected them
to lose six of their final nine games, but 13-12 in September was essentially
consistent with my view of the team.” Tim McCarver on Manny Ramirez in yesterday’s Philadelphia Daily News: “It's
extraordinary - the dichotomy between what he was in “(Now,
he is) a rejuvenated Manny, I think it would be fair to say. More than old Manny. Manny's doing things that even Manny
doesn't do, [like] scoring on a double to right field from first base . . .It's
a wonderful story in many, many ways, and from Boston's standpoint, it's a
horrible story, I would imagine, because he could be doing that for Boston."
(Posted:
10/7/08) Two urban areas hit by double baseball setbacks - The survey implies that the double-whammy of baseball fandom and Wall
Street-dependence is being felt with particular impact in these NYC and
The threat of a Mets- (or Cubs-) like collapse in earnings stems from the
high percentage of residents employed in financial services, real estate,
insurance or leasing businesses. In
Business Week also published a list of what it calls “The Power 100”, the
most influential people in sports.
Only one active baseball player made the list – Derek Jeter, number
51. In the top 20 were players union head Donald Fehr (18), the Steinbrenner
Family (19) and Red Sox owner John Henry (20).
Lob from left field: “The $700
billion bailout aims to rescue the world's economy, but that… raises questions about Pentagon
(spending of a similar amount). Because America has put military
invention at the heart of its enterprise, the exporting of weapons to countries
that do not need them and cannot afford them has become a main mode of this
nation's being in the world…
Unneeded weapons spark unnecessary wars. “That the
majority of humans are in dire straits and that the planet itself is groaning
are issues treated like givens of nature, yet they are results of the ways
creativity is channeled and resources are shared. $700 billion for rescue. $700
billion for war. Something is wrong with this picture, and…that coincidence of
numbers told us what.”
– James Carroll,
- - - Suddenly, with a surfeit of games to
watch, nothing for two long days.
Red Sox, Rays, couldn’t you have waited until Wednesday? SI’s Jon Heyman, on the upcoming
Dodgers-Phils NLC playoff: “The
Phillies are a fine team. But according to one scout, the Dodgers are simply too
hot and too good right now. ‘They're talented and they're
loose,’' said the scout, who is
now predicting a Dodgers-Red Sox World Series. “He saw the Dodgers earlier this year ago
and determined they were terrible.
But now he loves their pitching. ’[Derek] Lowe, [ In (Posted: 10/4/08) Among the eight teams to gain the
baseball playoffs, there were two winning formulas: run, gamble, make something
happen; or, be patient, careful, don’t take needless chances. On the presidential playing field, John
McCain embodies the first strategy, Barack Obama the second. What figures to be the more
successful approach? The question
will be answered over the next month in the election campaign, and the next
three-plus weeks in the playoffs. It’s the two teams from Obama’s
home city Chicago – the Cubs and White Sox – and their Midwestern neighbor the
Milwaukee Brewers that play the cautious Barack-like style (and look where it’s
gotten them!). The Cubs led the NL
in RBIs, the White Sox both leagues in home runs. The Brewers made the post-season with
what was statistically the fourth best pitching staff in baseball. The other five – the Red Sox, Rays,
Phillies and the two LA teams, the Dodgers and Angels – use stolen bases as a
weapon, taking the stir-things-up approach followed by McCain. All but the Angels are doing well. Newsweek’s Howard Fineman says
both presidential candidates showed off their contrasting styles as the bailout
crisis unfolded: “McCain made
a show of returning to “(Obama) was more
cautious by first instinct; that is who he is….Obama wants to portray himself as
a calm and steady force—someone who, as his slogan says, offers ’change we can
believe in’.” The French have a word that touches on
the danger of the Obama approach: les
endormis (those who are asleep).
It’s what they call inattentive members of their electorate. Barack clearly must awaken many
American sleepers if he hopes at least to neutralize the racist vote. It’s hard to do that by playing a safe,
station-to-station game.
- - - The Red Sox did fans on the
eastern seaboard a favor last night, all but eliminating the possibility we’ll
have to stay up late to watch the outcome of their ALDS series with the
Angels. The Angels aren’t as dead
as the Brewers and White Sox clearly are, but they’ll need heavenly help to stay
alive as the series moves to Fenway. Listening to a post-game
interview with Dodgers catcher Russell Martin on ESPN Radio the other night, it
was hard not to think negatively about the Mets. Martin talked about the fun it was
competing in the post-season with a passel of players he grew up with in the LAD
system. “We were in Double-A
together not long ago, and here we are – it’s indescribable.” Omar Minaya justifies the emphasis on obtaining
experienced players over farm-system products by saying New Yorkers demand a
team dotted with stars. The result:
Jose Reyes and David Wright, now fast-becoming veterans, are the only home-grown
products remotely equivalent to what the Dodgers offer their fans. Furthermore, the Mets couldn’t compete
with the Dodgers, if they wanted to, for Manny Ramirez. The Dodgers had the surplus ML-ready
prospects to send to
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